GCL - Past, Present, & Future (2011 edition)

Last year, I looked back at the where the 2009 GCL players spent their seasons and then made predictions where the 2010 folks would spend their 2011.  I didn't do to badly on the prediction piece.  All four of the players I predicted to be in G'ville (Moon, Monzon, Smith & Jones) were there.  Of the three I projected for Tri Cities, two of the three spent time there this year (Scott & Rosario) while one player was released (Ditthardt).  I didn't fair as well in Lexington where I only  one (Perez) out of three spent any time there.

Let's do the same process for this year:

Where 2010 GCL Astros Spent 2011:

Lets look at only those who spent more than a handful of games in the GCL in 2010 and find out where they spent 2011.


Repeat of GLC 

Of the 39 players who spent significant time on the GCL roster in 2010, 11 (28%) of them returned to the GCL for 2011.  That is a slight increase from the 26% (9 players) who returned from 2009 to 2010.  Let's look at a few of the returnees to see who they did in their second stint.


Jose Fernandez (SS) - The young shortstop showed slight improvement at the plate.  His average and OBP raised slightly.  He stolen base total jumped from four to 11 while holding his caught stealing to three.  His fielding showed significant improvement.  He dropped from 32 errors in 265 chances to 15 errors in 203 chances.  He will still be 18 when spring training rolls around next season. 

Luca Martone (2B) - Showed a huge jump at the plate this season in the GCL. His average went from .173 to .314 and his OPS jumped from .419 to .770.  He remained solid in the field.  He will also be 18 when spring training starts.

Kyle Reddinger (1B) - The 11th round draft pick in 2010 went backwards in 2011.  His average dropped from .219 to .148 and his OPS dropped from .568 to .436.  He will be 20 when spring training starts.

Pedro Gomez (RHP) - His ERA dropped from 7.76 down to 4.18. His WHIP dropped from 1.979 to 1.429.  This drop was highlighted by his hits dropping from 54 in 31 1/3 IP to 21 in 28 IP.  However, his BB jumped from 8 to 19.  He will be 20 when spring training starts.


Evan Grills (LHP) - The 10th pick in the 2010 draft might be ready for a big jump in 2012.  He showed good progress in 2011.  He appeared in 13 games (33 1/3 IP) and amassed a 3.00 ERA.  He only allowed 7 walks to go along with 33 hits for a 1.212 WHIP and he fanned 29 batters.  He will be 19 at the start of spring training.

Kirshawn Holley (RHP) - Holley only made one appearance in 2010, so 2011 was for all intents and purposes, his first season.  He had an impressive showing.  In 13 appearances (16 2/3 IP) he fanned 15 while only allowing 12 hits and 8 unintentional walks.  He will turn 20 just before spring training starts.

Francis Ramirez (RHP) - He repeated the GCL for most of the season and while his numbers didn't improve from an outcome standpoint.  He continued to miss bats consistently.  This warranted a late season jump to Greeneville where he fared better in ERA and showed better control. He will be 20 when spring training starts.

 Promoted to Greeneville

Greeneville was a popular landing spot for the GCL class of 2010.  They had 14 players (36%) make the jump to the Appy League.  This is an increase from the 24% who made the same jump last year.  Here is a look at what the experience was like for some of the more notable players to make the leap.

Ernesto Genoves (C) - He looked poised for a break out season after posting a batting average over .370 for the first 20 games.  However he faded in August, hitting just 172 for his last 18 games.  However, his season average of .280 was still an increase from his GCL numbers and his OPS jumped .140 points.  He will still be 20 when spring training begins.

Jordan Scott (LF) - Scott actually spent some time this year in Lexington before the short season teams started but he spent the majority of the season in Greeneville so he is listed here.  He had an All Star caliber season in Greeneville.  He was named the team MVP after hitting .337 in 60 games in Greeneville.  His defense will need some work but has shown he is ready for full season ball, and he will just be 19 when spring training starts.

Joshua Magee (2B) - Magee showed a significant amount of development this season.  He only hit .133 in June (9 games), he hit .232 in July (21 games) and then capped off the season by hitting .376 in August.  His August was helped by a 12 for 12 streak during the month.  Overall, his average jumped 56 points and his OPS rose 134 points.  He will be 20 when spring training starts.

Chan Moon (SS) - Moon showed a descent glove but his offensive numbers dropped from the GCL days.  He showed alittle more power but everything else showed decline.  Although he did have better numbers in August (.256 avg with .680 OPS).  He will be turning 21 during spring training next year.

Luis Ordosgoitti (RHP) - When as an 18 year old, you come into the APPY and strike out 42 batters in 44 IP while only walking seven, you qualify as a pitcher to watch.  He needs to work on missing bats a bit more.  He gave up 47 hits in those 44 IP.  He will be 19 when spring training starts.

Jose Perdomo (RHP) - Perdomo didn't fare as well as Ordosgoitti.  In fact, he was shut down in mid July and didn't appear again.  In his five starts (18 IP), he surrendered 33 hits and four HR.  He did fan 21 during those appearances.  Perdomo will be 20 at the start of spring training 2012.

Jeremiah Meiners (LHP) - I always like to pull for the underdog.  Meiners was a 40th round draft pick who didn't fare too well in the GCL in 2010 (6.95 ERA in 22 IP).  However, he showed growth in Greeneville.  In 40 1/3 IP (20 games), he fanned 42 batters and only allowed 34 hits and 10 walks for a WHIP of 1.09.  He will be 23 when spring training rolls around so the odds are against him but I hope the growth continues.

Promoted to Tri Cities
There were four players (10%) who were promoted to Tri Cities from the 2010 team.  That is up from 2 players or 6% from the 09 group.  All of those promoted were pitchers.

Kristian Bueno (LHP) - Bueno struggled with his control in SS-A ball.  He walked 19 batters in 20 2/3 IP. He will be 23 when 2012 spring training starts.

Dayan Diaz  (RHP) - Diaz put on a show in Tri Cities.  His season ERA was an impressive 1.98 over 50 IP (19 games).  More impressive was the 70 strike outs in those 50 innings pitched. Diaz missed all of 2009 and most of 2010 with injury so his 2011 performance puts his name on the radar for 2012. He will 23 just before spring training begins.

Juri Perez (RHP) - Perez is working his way back from an injury at the end of the 09 season that stunted his development.  He show some signs of returning to his strong 2009 form (67 Ks in 67 1/3 IP)  but there is still a long way to go (5.48 ERA).  He will still only be 21 when spring training rolls around.

Ebert Rosario (RHP) - Rosario continued his effort to covert from an infielder to a pitcher.  He struggled with his control in the NYPenn League, walking 14 batters in 23 2/3 IP but he also fanned 27.  Still a work in progress.  He will turn 25 after the season starts next year, so time is limited.

Promoted to Lexington
There was only one player(3%) who spent the majority of 2010 in the GCL who made the jump to the SALLY League.  That is down from four in 2010.

Roberto Pena (C) - In his first full season, Pena showed promise, nabbing 39% of runners who tried to steal.  However, the wear and tear of the long season appeared to catch up to him.  His batting numbers peaked in July (.258 avg & .638 OPS) but waned as the season went along.  He is seen as a promising catching prospect by those in Houston.

Released 
So far, we have covered 30 of the 39 players who spent any significant time on the 2010 GCL Astros roster, that leaves us with 9 players who were released, retired or were placed on the restricted list before the end of the 2011 season.  That list is as follows:

Ryan Ditthardt
Wilder Parra 
Geber Suniaga
Emmanuel Cedano
B J Hagans
Rafael Felix
Austin Lucas
Andrea Lucatti
Dieudone Paul


Back to the Future

So now who do I think could make the move this year. Any of the projections here are likely to be impacted by the draft, and any prospects picked up in trades. Let’s see who the crystal ball says we should keep an eye on for next year.

Greeneville 

Yonathon Mejia (2B)  - After improving his average from .235 in the DSL to .329 in the GCL, Mejia is ready to move up.  However, with his age being 19 next year, I don't expect him to jump to Tri Cities but it is possible. He needs time in the field.  He was at DH for 21 of his games in the GCL.

Luca Martone (2B) -He got the majority of the starts at 2B for the GCL team but he only appeared in 29 games.  I can see he and Mejia sharing time at 2B at Pioneer Park next season. 

Kenny Diaz (C) - It is a small sample size but in 13 games, he hit .281 and he threw out 5 out of 9 runners trying to steal.  He will be 19 when spring training begins.

Kelvin Vizcaino  (LF) - Average increased from .191 to .244 in his jump from the DSL to the GCL.  

Javaris Reynolds (CF) - The 7th round draft pick out of H. S. only hit .228 this season but he plays a solid center field.  He might repeat the GCL but I wouldn't be surprised to see him in Greeneville.

Kirshawn Holley (RHP) & Evan Grills (LHP) - They give every indication that it is time to move up.

 
Tri Cities


Juan Mojica (RHP)  - His 1.42 ERA earned a late season promotion to Greeneville in 2011.

Blake Ford (RHP) - The 44th round pick for 2011 appeared in 18 games with a 1.90 ERA.  Might jump all the way to Lex.

Justin Gill (RHP) - Held opponents to a .210 average in 21 2/3 IP as a 22 year old in the GCL.

Lexington

Chris Epps (RF/LF) - Hit .304 in 35 games before promotion to Tri Cities.  There he hit just just .212 in 70 plate appearances but did crush two HR.  Will turn 23 in December.

Feel free to add you ideas about who you think is going where.  We will look back at this next year to see how we did.

G-Stros Record Watch - Best Season Batting Average

As this season wraps up, I started looking at how this years numbers compare to previous years. Jordan Scott, with three games left, leads the 2011 edition of the G-Stros with a solid .340 average. Let's see where that stands compared to previous seasons. The average listed required that the player played in over half of the teams games. I will also include what transpired in the rest of their career.

2004 - .316 Antonio Garcia (44 games) - The big 1st baseman returned to Greeneville in 2005, his third season in the Appy League. He was released before the 2006 season started.

2005 - .335 Josh Flores (59 games)- The speedy CF had a great year in the Appy League and was considered one of the top prospects in the Appy that season. He quickly climbed up the system ladder, playing half of the 2007 season in Corpus Christi. Then in a freak accident in the off season, he slipped on some ice and damaged both knees. He missed all of the 2008 season. He came back in 2009 and then was injured again. When he returned in 2010, he wasn't the player he had been before all the knee injuries. He was released during the 2010 season and is now playing indy ball for the Joliet Slammers of the Frontier League.

2006 - .314 Ronald Ramirez (57 games) - The shortstop from Columbia went to Lexington to start the 2007 season and was off to a hot start when he was injured. He never got his bat back after that. He made it to Lancaster in 2009 but was released before the 2010 season.

2007 -.273 Ebert Rosario (59 games) - The lanky 3rd baseman came back to G'ville in 2008 and improved his season average to .304 in 47 games. He then steadily climbed the ladder to Lancaster where his development stalled. So in 2010, he was sent back to the GCL to learn how to pitch. He is with the Tri Cities ValleyCats this season pitching out of their bullpen.

2008 - .306 Albert Cartwright (39 games) - Cartwright was sharing time at second with a young Jose Altuve. He edged Rosario by .002 for the best average bragging rights in 2008. He moved on up to Lexington in 2009 where he struggled but something clicked in 2010. He started in Lancaster but after hitting .319 in 92 games, he was promoted to AA. During the off season, he was traded to the Phillies for relief pitcher Sergio Escalona. Cartwright then tore his Achilles tendon during spring training and he has missed the 2011 season as a result.

2009 - .324 Jose Altuve (45 games) - It was a surprise to see Altuve back in G'ville for the 09 season. He had hit .284 in 08. Since then, he has shot to Houston in just two seasons. He is the starting second baseman and quickly becoming a Houston Astros fan favorite.

2010 - .310 Chris Wallace (47 games) - Wallace started the 2011 season in Lexington but was promoted to Corpus Christi after he hit .285 in 66 games. He has had some learning to do in CC where during the month of July, he hit .272 with 5 HR. He suffered a right wrist injury and has not appeared in a game since 8/3/11.

Other players who finished with an average over .300:

2004 - .308 Mitch Einertson (63 games)
2005 - .333 Eli Iorg (35 games)
2006 - .306 Steve Brown (54 games)
2010 - .303 Marcus Nidiffer (43 games)
2010 - .303 Hector Rodriguez (43 games)
2011 - .335 Chase Davidson (43 games)

So if Scott plays in all three games the team has left, and gets four at bats a game, he just needs three hits to have the highest single season average for any player who has played in Greeneville. If he doesn't pull it off, Josh Flores will continue to hold the record by percentage points over Davidson.

What To Watch For In 2011 - Former G-Stros Third Basemen

Lets finish our trip around the infield with a look at what we are watching for out of former G-Stro third basemen in 2011. The theme for this position appears to be 'getting old fast'. Remember we covered Koby Clemens in our series when I discussed first basemen. In parenthisis are the year(s) they played in Greeneville and their age on opening day this year.

Third Basemen
Neil Sellers (2004, 28) - After playing 3 seasons in the Phillies organization, he signed as a minor league free agent with the Marlins this season where he will likely be a AAA teammate of former G-Stro Victor Garate who also signed with Florida this off season. Can he improve on his poor AAA performance last season? Will the thinner ranks of the Marlins organization give him a shot at getting a cup of coffee in the bigs?

Jhon Florentino (2005, 27) - After progressing a step each year since 2005, he repeated at AA for 2010. His numbers didn't reflect any improvement in his second season there. He was a minor league free agent at the end of the season and I haven't seen him sign with anyone yet. So the only question is will he be in spring training at all?

Jonathan Meyer (2009, 20) - Will he repeat in Lex or get pushed on to Lancaster? Can he reduce the numbers of errors? Can he continue to improve at the plate?

Ebert Rosario (2007,08, 23) - He was sent back to the GCL last season and converted to a pitcher. So he will be in one of the short season teams working on learning to pitch. Let's hope he has as much success at that as Jorge DeLeon had last year.

Rafael Valezuala (2010, 23) - I am wondering if he will start in short season or jump to Lexington.

Johnny Medrano (2010, 23) - What is the status of his injured arm? If healthy will he get a shot at Lexington?

Hector Rodriguez (2010, 20) - Will he be back in Greeneville because of the glut of 3rd older 3rd basemen in the system? Will he be used more as a utility player or will he stay at 3rd?

GCL - Past, Present & Future

The Gulf Coast League has just finished up its season. Now we get to start looking at where some of them will land next year. To prepare for looking at where they may be headed, let’s look at what happened to last years GCL Astros. Out of last years GCL Astros roster of players who played more than a handful of games, here is where they landed with a few players from each group highlighted.

Traded (1 – 3%)
Luis Bryan to Marlins in the Lindstrum. He started the season in the NYPENN League but was sent back to the GCL and has struggled.

Repeat of GCL (9 – 26%)
Jose Vargas – Repeated the league but changed positions from C to RF. The 19 year old saw his playing time increase but his numbers decreased. One silver lining is that he reduced his K rate significantly.

Ronald Sanchez – The 16th round pick of the 2009 draft out of Puerto Rico has not made the progress that would be expected. His numbers went backwards this year. He turned 19 earlier this month. So he is still young.

Garen Wright – The 29th round pick of the 2009 draft made progress repeating this year. He raised his batting average 46 points and his OPS .69 points. I expect to see him in Greeneville next year.

Mark Jones – The 22nd round draft pick of 09 repeated the GCL this year. He showed some improvement and spent more time as a starter.

Promoted to Greeneville (8 - 24%)

Telvin Nash – Made the move up to Greeneville and has be patrolling left field for the G-Stros. At times, it has been an adventure. The plate is where he is making news. After hitting only 1 HR in 142 AB, he has 11 in 189 so far this season. He is still striking out about one every three at bats, but his OPS jumped .250 points this season. He was named the Greeneville MVP at the game Sunday night.

Euris Quizada – El Grande is a late bloomer. Not signed until before the 09 season, he was sent straight state side to the GCL. This year, he has been a back of the rotation started for the G-Stros. He improved his ERA from almost seven down to just barely over six, but APPY league batters hit .315 while facing him.

Garrett Bullock – The 24 year old NDFA has flourished in Greeneville this season. The tall lefty with a good pick off move has combined better strike out numbers and much better control to put up a solid 1.26 ERA through 43 IP.

Promoted to Tri Cities (2 – 6%)

Enrique Hernadez – Made his debut in the NYPENN League as an 18 year old. Hit .280 in 60 games.

Jack Frawley – The 24 year old NDFA started the 2010 campaign in Greeneville but was sent up to Tri Cities after just 5 appearances. He has since made 6 in Tri Cities. His combined ERA for the year is 3.00.

Promoted to Lexington (4 – 12%)
Kody Hinze – Started 2010 where he started 2009, in Lexington. This time, he has added .100 to his batting average and shown more pop. After a hot start, he is currently at .275 with 44 extra base hits out of 118 hits. He turned 23 during the season.

Juan Minaya – Jumped from the lowest level of state side ball in 09 to full season ball in 2010. He has struggled with his control as a 20 year old in Lexington. He has walked 71 batters in 119 2/3 innings thus far. Batters are only hitting .240 against him.

Tanner Bushue – The second round pick from 09 jumped to full season ball and has stuck there. He has wrapped up a solid August with a 2.64 ERA.

Michael Schurz – The 44th round pick from 09 started the season in Lex and then jumped to Lancaster for a taste of pitching torment. Since returning to Lex, he has kept his ERA just under a touchdown.

Released (10 – 29%)

Jan Baldee – the Dutch SS experiment was a failure. When your batting average over two seasons doesn’t add up to .100, you know you are going to be released.

Back To The Future

So now who do I think could make the move this year. Any of the projections here are likely to be impacted by the draft, and any prospects picked up in trades. Let’s see who the crystal ball says we should keep an eye on for next year.

Greeneville

Chan Moon - The 19 year old from South Korea didn’t hit much but will likely still earn a promotion to Greeneville next year.

Jose Monzon – The 18 year old from Venezuela showed hit .250 for the season with 9 extra base hits (3 HR). He showed good speed too swiping 9 bases in 14 tries. He finished the season strong hitting .381 over the last 6 games but didn’t play after 8/7. Looks like a strong candidate for Greeneville.

Joshua McGee – Hit in the .260s all season before slumping at the end and brining his average down to .227 on the season. He only struck out 15 times in the first 98 AB and then fanned 20 in his last 78. McGee was the 18th pick in the 2010 draft. Another strong candidate for Greeneville.

Matison Smith - The NDFA from Texas turned 22 during the season. He didn’t strike out a bunch and gave up almost a hit per inning pitched; but he managed to keep his ERA at 1.59. I look for him to be in Greeneville next season.

Mark Jones – The 6’ 7” righty faded at the end of the season. His ERA after the month of July was 2.50. He finished the season with a 3.91 ERA. Control must improve for success at the next level. I would like to see him in Greeneville next year.

Tri Cities (or where ever we have a SS A team next year)

Jordan Scott – The lefty hitting OF finished the year with a .301 average and had hit .385 in his last 10 games. Only 33 K in 146 AB. Scott was the 14th round pick of the 2010 draft. I expect to see him in Tri Cities if he continues this pattern of play in Instructs and Spring Training next year.

Ryan Ditthardt - The 22 year old NDFA hit a solid .274, low strike outs but not much power. He will likely jump to Tri Cities next year.

Ebert Rosario – The former 3rd baseman is now a pitcher. He made a few appearances at the end of the season. Had 12 K’s in 10 2/3 IP. I expect he will be in Tri Cities to start the year next year.

Lexington

Juri Perez – Coming back from an elbow injury, Perez had 6 outings at the end of the season. He had one bad outing where he allowed 4 runs in 1/3 of an inning. The rest of the time, he allowed just 1 run in 8 innings. If he is healthy, I could see him jump to Lexington to start 2011.

Dieudone Paul - The 22 year old lefty from Haiti will likely make a significant jump based on his 13 outings this season. I would expect him to at least be in Tri Cities next season and I wouldn’t rule out a jump to Lexington.

Jose Perdomo – The 18 year old from Venezuela fanned 63 batters in 55 1/3 IP. He made 11 starts during the year, and finished with a 4-2 record and a super impressive 1.62 ERA. He might jump straight to Lexington.

Feel free to post your ideas of where theses guys might wind up in the comment section