Whatever Happened To The 2004 Appy League Top 20

People get excited about the top prospect list that come out once the season is over.  They talk about which players are overrated and which are underrated.  They discuss the players who were left off the list.  One thing that most folks don't do, is go back and see how predictive the list was of future success.

I started following minor league baseball when the G-Stros came to town in 2004.  So that class has always been one of my favorites.  I spent some time over the last few days researching what happened to the Baseball American Appy League Top 20 from 2004.  Below are the results.



Here are some observations:

• 36 players who played in the Appy in 2004 have played in the major leagues.  Only eight of those are on this list. In fairness, some of the 28 players not on the list might not have spent enough time in the league to be listed.  
• Four players never made it to AA.  Seven players never made it to AAA.  
• Only one player who hasn't made it to the majors is still in affiliated ball (Jordan Parraz). 
•  Gio Gonzalez is the player with the most success.  After that, it is mostly relievers and role players.
• Players develop, injury and teams need to promote can impact MLB debut date.  
• Injuries and off field issues derailed several of these prospects. 

This is a reminder to not take these list too seriously.  They are not prophetic but projective. 

Cumulative Top Prospect List

Updated 2/6/13 to include MLB's changed list after the trade with the A's and Keith Law's list for ESPN.

I enjoy the top prospect list exercise.  It is interesting to see which players are valued by different analyst.  Every year, I try to keep up with the lists when they come out and compare them to each other.  I also like to see what the consensus thought is about players.

Below is the cumulative rankings that have been compiled thus far.  This includes the list from 14 different sources: Baseball America (top 10), Baseball Prospectus (top 10), The Crawfish Boxes (top 30), Fangraphs (top 15), MLB.com (top 20), MinorLeagueBall (top 20), Bleacher Report (top 10), Baseball Prospect Nation (top15), MLB Dirt (top 15), Scouting Book (top 20), Baseball Instinct (top 21), Perfect Game (top 10), Astros County (top 25) and Keith Law - ESPN (top 10).

I continue to tweak this process.  There are two cumulative ranking orders.  The first is the cumulative ranking based on # of list they appeared on and the average ranking. This list is the true consensus as it rewards a player for making more list and lowers a player who was highly ranked but appeared on very few list.  The second cumulative ranking is based on average ranking and then # of list the player appears on.  This rewards a high ranking regardless of how often a player was ranked.  The color shade of the name indicates how they were obtained. The key is at the bottom of the list. Here is a link to the google drive spreadsheet for those who don't want to scroll in the window.

Here are some observations about the cumulative list thus far (updated 12/31/12):  

• There is consensus on the top 11 players on the list.  Six appear on all 14 list, and the five others appear on at least 10 list. 

• There are a few prospects with wide disparity of ranking:
• Jonathan Villar is ranked #6 (4x), #7, #8, #9, #11 (2x), # 12, #15, and #25. 
• Kevin Comer is ranked #9, #14, and #20.  He was also mentioned as an "others" by John Sickels
• Carlos Perez is ranked as high as #9 and as low as #19.  He appeared on six list. 
• Nolan Fontana is ranked as high as #9 and as low as #19.  He appears on seven list. 
• Joe Musgrove is ranked as high as #10 and as low as #22.  He appeared on five list.
• Teoscar Hernandez, Jose Cisnero, Brad Peacock, and Kyle Weiland all benefit from just appearing on one list. 

•  There are 49 players who have been included on a list at this time.  Here is the break down of how they were acquired:
• Via Luhnow Trade -17
• Via Draft 2012 -11
• Via Wade Trade - 6
• Via Draft 2011 - 3
• Via Draft 2010 -4
• Via Rule 5 Draft 2012 - 2
• Via Draft 2009 - 1
• Via Draft 2008 - 1
• Via International Free Agency (2007,2008, 2010) -4

•  That makes 30 out of the 49 have been acquired since Luhnow took over.

•  12 of the players have played in Greeneville. 

Former G-Stros Involved in Recent Transactions

Now that the season is over, players find out if they are in a teams plans or not.  Sometimes that means a door is opened for a new opportunity with a new team and sometimes it means a career may be over.  Here is the list of transactions that have occurred since this season ended that involve former G-Stros.  For those who have been declared a free agent, I have listed the last team they were affiliated with.

I am also including any players still on active rosters (MILB & MLB) so that you can see what results those teams have produced.

2004
Jimmy Barthmaier - declared a free agent by the Nationals.
Juan Gutierrez - re-signed by the Royals to a minor league deal.
Jordan Parraz - re-signed a minor league deal with the Braves.
Wladimir Sutil - declared a free agent by the Dbacks.
J.R. Towles - declared a free agent by the Twins. (Update signed to minor league contract with Cardinals)

Felipe Paulino (Royals-DL) and Troy Patton (Orioles) are the last two on Major League rosters.

2005
Koby Clemens - released by Blue Jays before end of season.
Victor Garate - released by Brewers before end of the season.
Ralph Henriquez - released by Mariners before end of season. (Signed to minor league contract with Rockies)

That leaves only Brandon Barnes left in affiliated ball from the 2005 G-Stros.

2006
Amadeo Zazueta (Blue Jays) and Tom Vessella (Giants) were on minor league rosters at the end of the season and have not been declared free agents or released yet.  Both Barnes & Henriquez were also on this team. 

2007
Fernando Abad - removed from the Astros 40 man roster, cleared waivers and is a free agent. (Update - signed to a minor league deal with the Nationals)
Arcenio Leon - removed from Astros 40 man roster and was claimed by the Brewers.

In addition to those two, the only player left on an active roster is Albert Cartwright (Phillies - minors).

2008
The following players have been released by the Astros organization:
Brad Dydalewicz
Nathan Pettus
Jose Trinidad
Jay Austin (before season ended)
Kody Hinze (before season ended)

In addition to those, Jorge De Leon was removed from the 40 man roster, cleared waivers and is a free agent.

Henry Villar was declared a free agent by the Astros.

There are still seven players in the Astros system from that team (Altuve, Lyles, Urckfitz, Grimmett, L. Cruz, Seaton, R. Garcia). Also Cartwright was on this roster too.

2009
Gabriel Garcia was released by the Astros.  There are still 12 players from this roster active in the Astros organization.

2010
The following players have been released by the Astros organization.
Ricardo Batista
Emilio King
Rodney Quintero

There are still 14 players from this roster active in the Astros organization. 

2011
The following players have been released by the Astros organization
Juan Mojica
Brad Propst
Garen Wright
Joshua Magee (released during the season and is now on the Alabama football roster as a walk on).
(Batista & Quintero were also on this roster)

There are 22 players from this roster active in the Astros organization. 

2012
James Howick was released by the Astros organization.  Propst was also on this roster.  There are 39 players from this roster active in the Astros organization. 

Season Recap: Outfielders

This is the last installment in the season recap for the 2012 Greeneville Astros.  Let's look at the guys who roamed the grassy spaces in Greeneville this season. It is a young bunch with Jose Monzon being the senior of the guys and he hasn't turned 21 yet.  Greeneville hasn't had an outfield with this much promise since 2004 (Parraz, Einertson & Torbert) and 2005 (Iorg, Flores & Barnes).  Each of those players made it to at least AA.  I believe the first three in this list have the potential to be better than either of those groups of outfielders.

Ariel Ovando was back for his second season.  The 18 year old showed improvement both at the plate and in the field.  His batting line jumped from .235/.283/.365 to .287/.350/.444.  The number of errors went down in the field.  He generally showed more hustle and focus this season than last, though that appeared to wane down the stretch of the season. 

I like Ovando more than most Greeneville fans. He is still very raw.  He was not ready for the Appy last year and his struggles that season have left a bad impression with some folks. 

Ovando turned 19 in September.  He will play his first full season of A ball as a teenager.  That will be a challenge for him.  In my opinion, the part of Ovando's game that needs the most work is the mental side of the game.  That includes staying focused in the outfield and not getting too down when the inevitable slump hits.  It means being more even and consistent. 

D'Andre Toney came to the Astros as the player to be named later in the Quintero/Bourgeios trade with the Royals.  He played 57 games in center and made just five errors.  He made multiple diving catches and ran down balls in the gap well.  He struggled some with balls hit to the wall.  He appeared to struggle with knowing when to play it off the wall verses trying make the highlight reel catch.  A small nit to pick there, I know. 

At the plate, Toney wasn't able to replicate the success he had in the Arizona Rookie League for the Royals in 2011.  He did show improvement in his plate discipline taking 15 walks in August alone.  He also showed some progress in stealing bases. He was 15 out of 20 in stolen base attempts for the year.  Toney will be 21 when spring training starts next season.  I expect to see him patrolling CF for Quad Cities.

Terrell Joyce manned left field in 39 games for the Astros.  He also played through an injured wrist for much of the season.  Joyce showed descent range and a solid arm in left.  He had just two errors and made three assist.  He made several nice catches coming in on balls that were slicing away from him.

At the plate, Joyce led the team with seven home runs.  He hit 14 doubles to show he has some pop in his bat.  He hit for a .273 average on the season and earned a spot on the fall instructional roster.  I can't see anyone blocking him from making his full season ball debut next spring.  He will still be 20 when spring training begins next season. 

Jose Monzon repeated Greeneville this year.  He was the utility outfielder appearing in 19 games in LF, 13 in CF and 14 in RF.  At the plate, Monzon improved his average to .214 after hitting .200 in 2011.  This was his third season in short season ball in the states.  He will be 21 when players report next year. 

Mark Wik was drafted in the 21st round this year and appeared in 18 games in LF, six in RF and made two appearances at 2B.  Wik exploded in June with a .357 average in his first nine games but cooled off finishing the season with a .235 average in 40 games. Wik took 21 walks which helped boost his OBP to .359.  In the field, he was solid but not spectacular.  He will be 20 when players report to camp. 

My Post Season Awards Ballot

Normally, I keep my post to the Greeneville Astros, their alumni and the Astros farm system. However, as a member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, I get the opportunity to put in my two cents in post season awards the group gives out. So here are my thoughts on who deserves the  National League hardware from the 2012 season.


Connie Mack Award (Manager of the Year - nominate 3)

1. Dusty Baker
2. Davey Johnson
3. Freddi Gonzalez

With all due respect to Johnson, Baker handled early season injuries to his bullpen and managed several DL trips by several key parts to lead the Reds to a 97 win season.  I believe he did more with less than any other manager this season.

Willie Mays Award (Top Rookie - nominate 3)

1. Bryce Harper
2. Wade Miley
3. Lucas Harrell

Harper gets my vote here.  Though, I would have loved to have voted for Jose Altuve if Ed Wade hadn't rushed him to the majors last year. 

Goose Gossage Award (Top Reliever - nominate 3)

1. Craig Kimbrell
2. Arnoldis Chapman
3. Jason Motte

Kimbrell gets my vote for the second year in a row.  Kimbrell's 16.66 Ks per 9 is slightly ahead of Chapman and gives him the edge.

Walter Johnson Award (Top Pitcher - nominate 5)

1. R. A. Dickey
2. Clayton Kershaw
3. Gio Gonzalez
4. Johnny Cueto
5. Kris Medlin

Dickey took the mound more innings than the other top four and walked fewer batters while throwing a knuckle ball as his primary pitch.  Enough said.   Medlin is added in for his performance.  It is a shame he wasn't in the rotation all year.  If he was, the Braves might be NL East Champs.

Stan Musial Award (Top Player - nominate 10)

1. Andrew McCutchen
2. Buster Posey
3. Yadier Molina
4. Ryan Braun
5. Joey Votto
6. David Wright
7. Jason Hayward
8. Michael Bourn
9. Giancarlo Stanton
10. Chase Headley

McCutchen carried a team as much as one player can. There was no other offensive player on his team that was in the top 40 in WAR.  The Pirates faded in the end but it shouldn't diminish McCutchen's impressive season.