Cumulative Top Prospect List

Updated 2/6/13 to include MLB's changed list after the trade with the A's and Keith Law's list for ESPN.

I enjoy the top prospect list exercise.  It is interesting to see which players are valued by different analyst.  Every year, I try to keep up with the lists when they come out and compare them to each other.  I also like to see what the consensus thought is about players.

Below is the cumulative rankings that have been compiled thus far.  This includes the list from 14 different sources: Baseball America (top 10), Baseball Prospectus (top 10), The Crawfish Boxes (top 30), Fangraphs (top 15), MLB.com (top 20), MinorLeagueBall (top 20), Bleacher Report (top 10), Baseball Prospect Nation (top15), MLB Dirt (top 15), Scouting Book (top 20), Baseball Instinct (top 21), Perfect Game (top 10), Astros County (top 25) and Keith Law - ESPN (top 10).

I continue to tweak this process.  There are two cumulative ranking orders.  The first is the cumulative ranking based on # of list they appeared on and the average ranking. This list is the true consensus as it rewards a player for making more list and lowers a player who was highly ranked but appeared on very few list.  The second cumulative ranking is based on average ranking and then # of list the player appears on.  This rewards a high ranking regardless of how often a player was ranked.  The color shade of the name indicates how they were obtained. The key is at the bottom of the list. Here is a link to the google drive spreadsheet for those who don't want to scroll in the window.

Here are some observations about the cumulative list thus far (updated 12/31/12):  

• There is consensus on the top 11 players on the list.  Six appear on all 14 list, and the five others appear on at least 10 list. 

• There are a few prospects with wide disparity of ranking:
• Jonathan Villar is ranked #6 (4x), #7, #8, #9, #11 (2x), # 12, #15, and #25. 
• Kevin Comer is ranked #9, #14, and #20.  He was also mentioned as an "others" by John Sickels
• Carlos Perez is ranked as high as #9 and as low as #19.  He appeared on six list. 
• Nolan Fontana is ranked as high as #9 and as low as #19.  He appears on seven list. 
• Joe Musgrove is ranked as high as #10 and as low as #22.  He appeared on five list.
• Teoscar Hernandez, Jose Cisnero, Brad Peacock, and Kyle Weiland all benefit from just appearing on one list. 

•  There are 49 players who have been included on a list at this time.  Here is the break down of how they were acquired:
• Via Luhnow Trade -17
• Via Draft 2012 -11
• Via Wade Trade - 6
• Via Draft 2011 - 3
• Via Draft 2010 -4
• Via Rule 5 Draft 2012 - 2
• Via Draft 2009 - 1
• Via Draft 2008 - 1
• Via International Free Agency (2007,2008, 2010) -4

•  That makes 30 out of the 49 have been acquired since Luhnow took over.

•  12 of the players have played in Greeneville. 

Season Recap - Starting Pitchers

Let's start our look at the 2012 Greeneville Astros by looking at the starting pitchers.  Twelve different pitchers started a game for the G-Stros.  We will take a look at the six who made the most starts.

We will look at them using my Appy Astros Adjusted Scoring System (3A2S).  This system takes the best outing game score and the worst outing game score and discards them.  The resulting starts will give us a truer picture of the real performance of the starters. For more information on the game score read this.

Francis Ramirez made 13 starts on the season.  His highest game score was a 70 on 7/1/12 and his worst game score was a 28 on 8/2/12.  His average game score across all starts was a 50.62.

His season ERA was a 4.05 and his WHIP was 1.46.
His 3A2S ERA was 4.53 and his WHIP was 1.43.

So his ERA goes up a half point but his WHIP stays basically the same.

The 20 year old showed flashes of promise with a great July but faded in August.  I look for him to be in short season ball again next season, likely in Tri Cities.

Daniel Minor was one of three pitchers who made 11 starts on the season.  His highest game score was an impressive 85 on 8/10/12. He lowest game score was a 21 on 7/30/12.  His average game score was 55.36 over his 11 starts.

His season ERA was 2.75 and his WHIP was 1.03.
His 3A2S ERA was 2.29 and his WHIP was 1.00.

His ERA drops by almost a half point when adjusted and his WHIP is maintained.

The 21 year old out of Texas A&M Corpus Christi made strong impression in 2012.  What is more impressive is that he had already pitched 110 1/3 innings in college before the draft.  He added 59 more innings for Greeneville and finished strong with a 0.35 ERA over his last four starts. He showed he is ready for the next step up the ladder.  I fully expect to see Minor in Lexington next season and would not be surprised if he made the jump to Lancaster. 

Adrian Houser also made 11 starts.  His high game score was 73 on 7/6/12 and his low was a dismal 4 on 8/6/12.  His average game score for the season was 49. 36.

His season ERA was 4.19 and his WHIP was 1.31
His 3A2S ERA was 3.86 and his WHIP was 1.35

His ERA drops .33 points and his WHIP is basically unchanged.

The 19 year old Houser experienced a pretty consistent season.  He had two great starts (games scores of 73 & 74) and two horrible starts (game scores of 4 & 11). The other seven scores ranged from 46 to 58.  With four of them being a score of 56.  What that tells me is that he was challenged at this level and that he responded fairly well.  I don't expect him to return to Greeneville again.  I expect him to be challenged in Lexington next year. It will be a very good test for him.

Fredrick Tiburcio was the third pitcher to make 11 starts. His first appearance of the year was out of the pen but he was a starter after that.  His highest game score was 74 on 7/14/12.  His lowest game score was on 7/2/12 and was a 31.  His average game score was a 51 but six of his starts scored below a 50. 

His season ERA as a starter was 4.08 and his WHIP was 1.29
His 3A2S ERA was 4.18 and his WHIP a 1.23.

The change in dropping the best and worst starts made only a negligible change. that would seem to indicate that his numbers are pretty accurate. 

The 21 year old Tiburcio showed brief flashes of quality stuff with two starts scoring a game score over 70 and claimed the two seven inning complete games this year.  But he was either on or off.  I don't know what to expect from Tiburcio next year,  If forced to project, I think he will start the year in extended spring training again. 

Michael Feliz made six starts after his promotion from the GCL Astros.  Feliz' worst game score came in his Appy League debut on 7/29/12.  His best outing was his last one of the season when he put up a game score of 66 on 8/28/12.  His average game score over his six starts was 46.16.

Six outings is really too small of a sample to evaluate. Feliz will turn 19  and has been invited to instructional league starting up next week.  How he does there will probably impact his placement next year.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him back in Greeneville in 2013.

Lance McCullers Jr. made four late season starts after his promotion from the GCL.  His game scores ranged from a low of 39 in his final start to a high of 60 in his first start.  His average game score was 47.75.  McCullars struggled some in moving up to the Appy League.  Not too much can be made from this sample size as well.  The last two starts were tainted by errors that lead to unearned runs.  It also caused him to have to use more pitches which limited his outings.  The one thing I will be watching in the future from McCullers is how he does with runners on base.  He didn't appear very comfortable with runners on base at times this year. 

McCullers appears to have a very strong work ethic and will take the feedback from the staff in Greeneville and what he hears in instructional league and will work on those things in the off season.  I expect he will break spring training in Lexington next season.

So there you have my feedback on the primarily starters in Greeneville.  I hope this gives you some food for thought as you look forward to next spring. 

Eyewitness Report: 8/18/12 Gville 2 - B-Royals 0

It was a great night at the ball park.  I had the pleasure of watching the game with several Astros bloggers. It was nice to put faces with names.  We had such a good time we talked for over an hour after the game ended. 

The game itself was also a pleasure.  It was a good pitching, good defense kind of game that was played in under two hours!  Let's get to my observations.


On The Mound:
Adrian Houser took the mound and pitched pretty well.  Most notably, it was the first time in eight starts that he didn't walk a batter.  There were some hard hit balls off of him but they were at people and the Greeneville defense was solid.  He was pulled after five innings.  My unofficial pitch count for him at that time was 59 pitches.

Tanner Bushue came in and bounced back from a rough outing last time out, with a solid outing. He allowed just one hit in two innings and struck out three batters.  His August ERA is 0.84.   

Zach Dando earned his first save of the season with his mom and dad in the stands.  He struck out four over two innings.  His August ERA is a healthy 0.96. 

In The Field:
There were some outstanding plays in the field.  The best was by Carlos Correa who made a diving snag of a line drive by Bubba Starling to start a double play.  Correa dove to his left and caught the ball inches off the ground.  The runner on first was easily doubled off 1st because every one in the park expected that ball to get through.

The other good play was by Terrell Joyce. In the top of the second, Burlington's DH hit a double down the line with two outs.  The Royal's manager chose to insert a pinch runner (IN THE SECOND INNING!).  The next hitter singled on a ground ball to left field.  Joyce was aggressive in fielding the ball on the run and came up throwing.  His throw was perfect and catcher Ernesto Genoves did a nice job of not reacting to the throw until the last minute.  The made the catch and the tag and the shutout was still intact. 

At The Plate:
Correa continues to show he can hit.  His two for four night moved his average since his promotion to .458.  Again, I noticed how well he lets the ball travel in the zone.  He was called on to sac bunt in this game and he did so effectively.  He appears very fundamentally sound.

Angel Ibanez  and Joyce had two hit nights as well.  Ibanez scored both runs for the G-Stros.

Other Observations: 
Ariel Ovando was held out of the line up for the second night in a row.  This follows poor fielding performances on Wednesday and Thursday.  I am not sure that is a coincidence.

Eyewitness Report: 8/6/12 Double Header Loss to Johnson City

It was a tough night at Pioneer Park last night.  The G-Stros were swept by the Johnson City Cardinals.  Here are a few observations: 

GAME ONE: Cards 8 - Gville 2

On The Mound:
Adrian Houser got the start in game one.  He didn't pitch as badly as the line indicates. Two of the doubles were not hit hard but were placed right down the opposite field line.  Batters appeared to have been fooled on the pitch.  The triple that was hit to lead off the second was aided by a bad line to the ball by Ariel Ovando.  

Houser's poise was good until the fifth when you could see the frustration in his body language on the mound.

Mike Hauschild relieved Houser with the bases loaded and one out in the fifth.  He allowed a single, a walk, and a fielders choice to allow all the inherited runners to score.  The ground ball was a slow roller that couldn't be turned for a run saving double play.  He pitched a scoreless sixth inning.

Andrew Walter finished the game for Greeneville.  He pitched around three hits for a scoreless seventh.

At The Plate:
Not much to write about here.  The G-Stros only mustered three runs off of Cardinal pitching.  Angel Ibanez had a two RBI double  D'Andre Toney also had a double and Ricky Gingras has a single.  Ovando took a four pitch walk and showed better pitch recognition in all at bats.  He already has four walks in August.  It appears the scouting report is don't throw him strikes and he has made some adjustment.

In The Field:
Ricky Gingras did a nice job behind the plate blocking balls.  His caught stealing was on a ball that got away from him and he corralled it and made a good throw to third.

Other than Ovando's bad route, the only other misplay was by Toney who ran past a ball on the ground in an error that was possibly due to lack of focus late in a blow out game.  It did not result in additional runs but it did give up an extra base to two runners.

GAME TWO: Cards 5 - Gville 1 

On the Mound: 
There was a buzz in the air before game two.  It was the Greeneville debut of 1st round supplemental draft pick Lance McCullers.  Part of the buzz was created by his pre game warm up routine that included long tossing a neon yellow softball.  It was the first time I had seen that in a pitchers pre game routine.

Once he took the mound, he showed good poise and solid pitching.  The first inning was an adventure as he got the first two outs and then walked the bases loaded. Two of those walks came on full counts.  After a pitching visit, he settled down and got the final out on a strike out.    I sat near a scout so I could peek at his radar gun.  It was reading 91-93 on fastballs and 80-84 on his breaking ball.  Those numbers stayed consistent throughout his start.

After his 26 pitch first inning, McCullers settled down and pitched very well.  He allowed one hit and one walk in his next three innings of work while striking out three more batters.  An impressive first showing for Mr. McCullers

He was relieved by Joe Musgrove.  The scout didn't have his gun out for him so I can't give you numbers but he appeared to be throwing harder.  However, they were being hit and hit hard.  He lasted an 1 2/3 innings and was helped by defense.

Euris Quezada came in and put out a fire in the sixth and then was pulled with two outs in the seventh in favor of a lefty.  Hindsight being 20/20, I wish he would have been left in.

Scott Zuloaga came in to face Bruce Caldwell who was pulled for a pitch hitter who hit a line drive that should have been out #3 but was a three base error instead.

After one batter, Michael Dimock came in to finish the game. 

At The Plate:
The Astros hitters were baffled by slight Stalyn Lopez.  He pitched a complete game four hitter and fanned eight G-Stros.  He got better as the game went along.  He was throwing mid 80's at the start of the game and hit 90 in the sixth inning.

Angel Ibanez had the big hit again with another RBI double. He was responsible for knocking in all of Greenville's runs last night. He now has a seven game hitting streak and in his last five games, he is 9 for 20 (.450) with four doubles and eight RBI.

Jean Batista hit a double, and Toney and Jose Monzon added singles to complete the G-Stros hit totals. 

In The Field: 
It a mixed bag for Ariel Ovando.
The Good: With a runner on second, he caught a fly ball in right field.  He runner went back to tag and Ovando unleashed a throw that the third baseman caught head high.  It was slightly off line but the throw created a buzz in the park.
The Bad: He hot dogged one catch in right.  It was a high fly ball on the warning track and he caught the ball about bell high on his right side.  He had plenty of time to catch it in a fundamentally sound way.  He also misplayed a line drive that got by him and was the difference in the game.  

Jose Monzon also had a mixed result.  He nailed the potential tying run at the plate in the fifth with a great throw.  He later let a throw slip out of his hand that almost ended up in the seats behind third.

Angel Ibanez had a solid game at third; making several plays coming in towards the grass.

D'Andre Toney made a diving attempt in each game on balls in front of him.  He failed to come up with either one but you have to like the effort.

Greeneville Report- The Pitchers - July 2012

It was an interesting month for Greeneville pitchers.  Let's start with a look at the starters:

Nine different players made at least one start for Greeneville in July.  The average game score for the team during the month was 48.9. Let's look at the ones whose average game scores were above the team average. . 

Adrian Houser was skipped once in the rotation and made four starts.  Games scores of 73, 56, 58, & 53. Average game score was 60. His ERA for the month was 3.07 with 35 strike outs in 29 1/3 IP.  his 46 strike outs on the season is tied for the league lead. His 17 base on balls is tied for 7th most in the league. Despite missing a start, he still leads the league in innings pitched with 44 2/3. 

Francis Ramirez made six starts.  Games scores of 70, 62, 63, 66, 39, & 48. Average game score of 58. His July ERA was 1.97 with 39 Ks in 32 IP.  He held opponents to a .219 average. His season ERA of 2.54 is 6th best in the league. His 44 Ks ranks him 4th in the league. His 19 walks are the 5th most in the league.

Frederick Tiburcio made five starts.  Games scores of 31, 41, 74, 63, & 47. Average game score of 51.2. His July ERA was 4.50.  Walks are hurting him with 12 walks in 26 IP.  His 21 walks on the season are the 4th most in the league.   

Mike Hauschild  made one spot start of three innings.  It earned him a game score of 60.

The Pen 
Scott Zuloaga was perfect in July.  He appeared in 11 games as a lefty specialist (6 1/3 IP).  He allowed just four hits and two walks while striking out nine.  Only one run scored and it was unearned.   

Jordan Jankowski had a bit of a rough start to July, allowing earned runs in his first three outings.  He bounced back to finish the month strong and ended with a 2.51 ERA and an impressive 26 strike outs in 14 1/3 IP.  He earned his first save in July.

Mike Hauschild made seven appearances in July and amassed a 2.77 ERA.  He fanned 18 batters in 13 innings.  He had 20 ground outs and absolutely zero air outs for the month!

Zach Dando was effective with a 1.29 ERA in seven appearances.  He allowed just 11 hits and two walks in 14 innings. 

Euris Quezada was solid before his promotion to Lexington.  In five games (9 2/3 IP) he allowed two earned runs.  He fanned 12 during that span.  He is back with the team again to begin August.

Team Stats
As a team, Greeneville has a 3.88 ERA which is 4th best in the league.  They have pitched the most innings (366 2/3) but have give up the 4th fewest hits (330). The pitching staff has kept the ball in the yard, only surrendering 21 HR; the fewest in the league.  They have issued the third highest number of walks (152) but have fanned a league leading 390.  That is over one strike out per inning as a team!
 

Eye Witness Report: July 11- G-Stros 7 E-Twins 4

It had rained all day in Greeneville and the weather kept the crowd down but the game on the field was worthy of a much larger audience.  The crowd that was there huddled up under the awnings to stay away from the heavy drizzle that fell at times early in the game.  Let's look at the game:

At the plate:
Every Greeneville hitter contributed at the plate tonight. Only one was without a hit but he contributed a sacrifice fly that scored a run.  Here were the top contributors:

Big Hit Brian Blasik - In the first, he battled in an eight pitch at bat to hit a sacrifice fly to plate the first run of the game. In the third, he ripped a ball down the left field line for a bases loaded triple to give Greeneville all the runs they would need.  It made the game 5-0 at the time.  He would later score on a sacrifice fly by Terrell Joyce.  He finished the night going 2-3 with four RBI and a run scored.

Angel Ibanez - Got things started in the third with a lead off single.  He later scored on a wild pitch after moving station to station.  He finished the night two for four but the two outs were loud.  He smoked a line drive to third in the fourth and then hit a ball to deep right field in the ninth that the park barely held. 

D'Andre Toney - Was the lead off man tonight and got the game off to a good start with a double in the first and later scored on Blasik's sac fly.  He also reached in the third on a dropped third strike.  He later scored on the carousel started by Blasik's triple. He tried to bunt his way on in the fifth but he didn't deaden it enough and the ball beat him down the baseline.

There were three at bats that went deep in counts that had good results for Greeneville.  Blasik's eight pitch sac fly in the first is one. He finished the night seeing 20 pitches in four plate appearances.  Ibanez's single in the sixth was a seven pitch at bat. Toney reached on a called third strike on the seventh pitch of that at bat and only one pitch was a ball - the first pitch! 

On the Mound:
Adrian Houser impressed me tonight. He was pitching against a very good team and at times, he struggled. He showed resiliency as he pitched six innings.  Let's look at each inning individually:

First: Leadoff hitter reaches on a single that was almost a great play by Blasik at second.  The second batter reaches on a fielders choice but the leadoff is erased.  After a fly out to center for the second out, the final out is made by Mark Wik in right who ranges a long way to flag down a tailing fly ball. Unofficially 13 pitches - 10 strikes
Second:  First batter walks in a seven pitch at bat.  Houser bounces back and fans the next guy on four pitches and gets the subsequent batter to fly out to right on just two pitches.  The final batter hit the ball back to Houser on the second pitch of the at bat for a 1-3 put out.  Unofficially 15 pitches - 9 strikes.
Third: Two lead off walks followed by a fielder's choice that erased the middle runner.  So he has first and third with one out.  A flair hit just over the short stop allowed one run to score and leaves runners at first and second with one out.  Another ball is hit to left and Wik catches the ball and fires a laser back to the infield to discourage any extra base ideas the E-Twins might have had.  Houser bears down at this point and strikes the next batter out.  Unofficially 27 pitches - 12 strikes.
Fourth: The lead off man in the inning golfs a high fly ball to the fence in center.  It appears Toney had a bead on it but ends up leaping about a foot away from where the ball hits the fence.  The result is a lead off triple.  This is followed by a RBI single up the middle.  That put the Twins up by one at the time.  The next batter singles and puts runners at first and second with no outs.  During the next at bat, the catcher, Genoves tries to pick a runner off first but Batista is not ready for the throw.  It goes into right and the result is second and third with no outs.  It looks like the wheels are coming off.  However, Houser digs deep and strikes out the next two batters.  Then after a four pitch walk to load the bases, he fans the last out of the inning.  Impressive pitching in a high pressure situation.  Unofficial count 25 pitches - 15 for strikes.  So after four innings, his pitch count is at 80.
Fifth: Houser throws just 12 pitches in a one two three inning.  Eight of the pitches are for strikes and the ball doesn't leave the infield.
Sixth: A seven pitch strike out starts off the final inning of work for Houser.  The next batter hits a flair for a single down the right field line.  Houser bounces back and strikes out the next batter and then induces a fielder's choice ground ball for the final out.

Houser really impressed me tonight.  He pitched ahead in the count all night - 17 of the 25 batters he faced saw a first pitch strike.  He mixed his pitches well.  When Elizabethton started sitting fastball early in the count, he went to his change and made them look silly several times. Adrian Houser earned that win tonight!

Scott Zuloaga came in to start the seventh and got one strike out sandwiched between a hit and a hit batter. Michael DiMock came in and got a 5-3 double play to end the seventh and pitched a scoreless eighth before struggling in the ninth.  Though one of the hits in the ninth was a triple that was added by a bad route.  Ovando didn't give enough ground in moving on the ball and the ball was past him before he met where he expected the ball to be. 

In the field:
I have already mentioned the solid play by Wik in left and the error by the catcher on the throw to first, however, the first baseman, Jean Batista, has some responsibility in that play.  He was not in position to receive the throw and the result was the runners moving up 90 feet.

Batista simply doesn't look comfortable at first yet.  The footwork and the glove work are both raw. It appears he tries to backhand everything when he should be scooping with the arm extended.

Summary:
The game was very fun and the team played very well. Everyone contributed with the bats and the pitching stayed around the zone and the defense made plays when they were needed.  The E-Twins left 11 men on base compared to Greeneville just leaving four.  The win puts Greeneville just 1 1/2 games back of the E-Twins with two more games this week with them.

Greeneville Report - The Pitchers - June 2012

We have seen what the hitters looked like, let's take a look at the pitchers.  We will look at the top starters and relievers.

Starters:

I really like the game score stat. So I will use that as the primary tool to evaluate the starters.  However one of the limitations is that some of the starters are still being stretched out so they won't go as long in games as others and that limits their scoring potential in this formula.

Adrian Houser - Three Starts - Average Game Score (47).  Houser had both the high and the low game score for the G-Stros in June.  He bounced back from an 11 to score a 74 in his final start of the month.  The 74 game score was the highest on the team thus far this season.

Richard Ramirez - Three Starts - Average Game Score (59).  Very consistent month with game scores of 61, 57, and 59 in his three starts. Ramirez is second in the league in strikeouts (22 in 17 IP), and ninth in WHIP (1.06).

Francis Ramirez -Two Starts - Average Game Score (49.5).  Even though June wasn't spectacular, F-Ram has started July with a game score with a 70 in his start on Sunday.

Keep an eye on Daniel Minor who earned a game score of 60 in a three inning start.  It appears they are stretching him out.  He went four innings in his next start with a not as impressive game score of 44.

Relievers:

We get a bit of a larger sample size with relievers in terms of appearances but due to the low inning count, one bad outing can skew the results.  Here are the top thee relievers based on numbers for June.

Mitch Lambson - earned his promotion to Lexington by striking out 12 batters and allowing no base runners in the 9 2/3 innings he pitched in Greeneville.

Jordan Jankowski - is earning the title of team vulture. He already has three wins pitching in relief. In five games, he has 11 strikeouts in 7 1/3 IP. 

Michael Hauschild - has become the closer for Greeneville.  He has finished four games and earned saves in both save opportunities he had in June. He struck out seven in six innings pitched. 

What To Watch For In 2012 - Former G-Stros Starting Pitchers

I am wrapping up the 2012 What To Watch for series on the mound this year.  Because of the volume of pitchers on a roster, I won't cover everyone. Let's will start with those who were starters for the majority of their time in Greeneville. We will cover the relievers in the final episode. The year they pitched for the G-Stros, the highest level they have played at and their age on opening day are listed in parentheses.

Starting Pitchers


R. J. (Ruben) Alaniz (2010, Lo A, 20) - Held his own as a 19 year old in the Sally League.  Will he repeat Lex or move on to Lancaster? Will he continue to start or make the move to the pen?

Jimmy Barthmaier (2004, MLB, 28)  - Was re-signed as a minor league free agent by the Nationals after an unimpressive 2011 season.  Will he break camp with  AA, AAA or release papers?

Richardo Batista (2010, 11, Rookie, 20) - Batista repeated Greeneville in 2011 and had his best season yet.  Can the lefty harness his pitches and cut down on walks and wild pitches? 

Jose Cisnero (2009, Hi A, 22) - Cisnero's ERA suffered in Lancaster.  After three years of mid 3.00 ERA, he jumped to a 6.06.  But his strikeouts jumped as well.  In 2011, he fanned 152 in 123 1/3 IP.  How will he adjust to AA hitters? Can he bring the walks down?  How long does he continue to start?

Luis Cruz (2008, 09, Hi A, 21) - Got off to a rough start in Lancaster in 2011 and was sent back to Lex where he fanned 92 in 91 innings. How will he fair in Lancaster this time? 

Brad Dydalewicz (2008, Lo A, 21) - Missed most of the season due to an injury.  Low A or Hi A for him this year?  Can he reduce his walk numbers?

Mike Foltynewicz (2010, Lo A, 20) - Folty showed strides in May, June & July of his first full season but appeared to hit a wall in August and September.  Which team will he break camp with? Can he show good results for a complete season?

Gabriel Garcia (2009,2010, Lo A, 22) - Moved from starter to bullpen in 2010.  Showed some promise there striking out 68 batters in 69 1/3 IP.  However, the long ball monster got him 10 times last season.  Can he improve on 2011, while pitching in hitter friendly Lancaster?

Kyle Greenwalt (2007, 08, AA, 23) - After a rough start to 2011 in AA, Greenwalt was sent back to Lancaster as a reliever.  He excelled there and was returned to AA.  There he was some better but still not great.  Will he be a reliever or a starter?  Can he show improvement in a return to AA? 

Juan Gutierrez (2004, MLB, 28) - Had season ending surgery in 2011 and was then signed by the Royals to a minor league deal.  Will start 2012 on the DL. Will he be able to return from the surgery and resume his work as a solid arm in the bullpen?

Adrian Houser (2011, Rookie, 19) - Pitched well in six games in Greeneville after starting in the GCL.  Will he be in Lexington to start the year?  Will what he worked on in instructional league and mini camp show up on the mound this spring?

Chris Lee (2011, Rookie, 19) - Finished strong in his last three outings.  Combined for 14 K's in his last 12 IP with only 1 earned run.  But he also walked 11 during that stretch.  Will improvements seen at the end of 2011 carry over into 2012?  Extended Spring or Lexington?

Arcenio Leon (2007, 08, AAA, 25) - Struggled in AA & AAA last year. How will he fair in big league spring training?  Where will he start 2012?

Jordan Lyles (2008, MLB, 21) - Spent most of the season in the bigs last year.  Will he be in the Houston rotation when camp breaks? What will his second full season in the bigs hold?

Luis Ordosgotti (2011, SS A, 19) -The highlight of the 2011 starters in Greeneville.  Showed real promise.  Does he have the maturity to pitch in the SALLY as a teen? 

Troy Patton (2004, MLB, 26) - Is the only piece from the Tejada trade still in the Orioles system.  Will he make the team out of spring training?  What will his role in the pen be?

Felepe Paulino (2004, MLB, 28) - Seemed to like pitching for KC after a failed stint as a Rockie.  Will he earn a spot in the rotation out of spring training?  Will this year be the year he lives up to expectations?

Jose Perdomo (2011, Rookie, 20) - After a great 2010 in the GCL, he came to the Appy and got lit up.  He was put on the shelf and didn't pitch after the middle of July.  Will he be back in Greeneville or in Tri Cities for 2012?  Will he be healthy enough to pitch anywhere?

Juri (Yuri) Perez (2009, Lo A, 21)  After missing most of 2010 with injury, he was sent to Lexington where he was lit up.  At Tri Cities, he found much more success.  How will Lexington treat him this season?  Can he return to the form he showed in Greeneville prior to the arm injury?

Tyson Perez (2011, Rookie, 22) Mixed results season to start his pro career with 42 K in 43 IP but 10 HR and 50 hits.  Will he make Lexington's starting rotation? 

Carlos Quevedo (2009, Lo A, 22) - Quevedo put up decent numbers in Lexington last year.  He rarely walks hitters but the long ball has been his thorn in the flesh.  If he goes to Lancaster, how will his HR numbers look then?  

Euris Quezada (2010, SS A, 22) - Quezada had his season cut short with injury after having his best outings of the year.  Will he be healthy for 2012?

Francis Ramirez (2011, Rookie, 20) - A mid season call up from the GCL showed some real promise in four starts for Greeneville.  More advanced stats from Fangraphs temper the excitement with a BABIP of .204.  In other words they say he was very, very lucky. Which pitcher is he, the one who gave up 20 walks in 30 1/3 IP in the GCL or the one who gave up two in 18 2/3 IP in the APPY?

Ross Seaton (2008, AA, 22) - Showed some improvement in AA in '11 after a rough 2010 in Lancaster.  Will he be in AAA or repeat AA? 

Jose Trinidad (2008, Hi A, 24) - Will start season on DL.  Will he pitch at all in 2012? 

Vincent Velasquez (2010, Rookie, 19) - Missed all of 2011 after TJ surgery.  How will he look and where will he be playing?

Tom Vessella (2006, AAA, 26) - After two years in Indy ball, Vessella returned to affiliated ball in 2011 with the Giants.  He pitched in four different levels (low A, hi A, AA, & AAA).  Can his comeback story continue in 2012?

Henry Villar (2008, MLB, 24) - After a cup of coffee with Houston in 2010, Villar started in AAA but was a bit over matched there.  He was returned to AA where he put up much better numbers?  Will the second time starting at AAA be the charm?  Can he get another cup of coffee this year?

Projected placement of those still in the Astros organization:

MLB: 
Lyles

Oklahoma City (AAA)

Leon
Villar

Corpus Christi (AA)
Cisnero
Greenwalt
Seaton

Lancaster (Hi A)
Cruz
Dydalewicz
Garcia
J. Perez
Quevedo

Lexington (Lo A)
Alaniz
Folty
Houser
Ordosgotti
Quezada

Extended Spring Training
Batista
Lee
Perdomo
T. Perez
Ramirez
Velasquez

Appy Astros G-Stros End of August Report

Little Appy Astro and I went to Pioneer Park last night and caught the last game of the season.  It is always a bitter sweet time of the year.  You can tell the players are ready to go home and see family and friends. And having experienced being away from home, I understand where they are coming from. However, as a baseball fan, it means the season is drawing to a close.  And a disappointing season at that.

I had high hopes for this edition of the G-Stros.  Some of the players I thought would do well, didn't.  However, that doesn't mean there wasn't some development that took place.  Let's take a look at who showed some growth during the final month of the season.

Josh Magee turned his season around in a big way in the month of August.  In June and July, he played in 30 games and was 20 for 99 at the plate (.202).  He got sizzling hot in August including one stretch where he hit in 12 straight AB.  He finished the month hitting .376 (32 of 85) and that brought his season average up to a respectable .283.  He is a good example of a player who develops over a short season.  He raised his OBP at least .100 points each month.

Jordan Scott was the MVP of the G-Stros this season.  He hit .337 on the season but hit .366 for the month of August.  He also hit his first HR of the season.  He will turn 20 on 9/22/11.  Look for him to be in LF in Lexington next season.

Jean Batista joined the G-Stros around the middle of August.  He appeared in 12 games and got off to a hot start.  The 19 year old SS hit .333 and also hit two HR during his brief stay in Greeneville.

On the mound, there were also some positive developments:


Frances Ramirez was called up from the GCL and made four starts in G'ville in August.  In those four starts, he put up a 2.89 ERA in 18 2/3 IP. He only allowed 12 hits and two walks while striking out 11 batters during that span. 

Tyson Perez put together a solid last month of the season.  His ERA for August was 3.54 in six starts but he fanned 29 batters in 28 innings pitched.  Prior to this month, he had only fanned 20 in 27 IP. 

Chris Lee, the highest draft pick at the start of the year, showed some signs of development.  He fanned 26 batters during his last 23 2/3 IP.  While he still gave up way too many walks, he was getting more swings and misses and more ground balls.

Jeremiah Meiners was one of the most solid arms out of the pen all season.  He finished with a 2.90 ERA and never had a month where his ERA rose to the 3.00 level.  In 40 1/3 IP, he fanned 42 batters and only walked 10.   He didn't get enough IP to qualify among the league leaders (14 1/3 short), but his WHIP of 1.09 would have been in first place.  He showed significant growth over his 2010 season in the GCL (6.95 ERA).

Zach Dando didn't have the best of months for August but despite an ERA of 4.97, he held opposing batters to a .196 average.  He had more Ks (35) than IP (33).

Matison Smith was one of the older players on the roster.  At 23, he put together a nice August out of the G-Stros pen.  He put up a 1.42 ERA in 9 appearances (12 2/3 IP).  During that span, he fanned 20 batters.

Scott Zuloaga, had an impressive August.  The side winding lefty posted a 2.45 ERA for the month that was less than half of his previous month's 5.68.  During August, he appeared in 12 games and fanned 8 batters in 7 1/3 IP.  He also induced ground balls at a higher rate.  His season ERA is deceptively high due to his 36 ERA in August.

Most Likely To Return
Last year, I predicted that Cotton & Batista would return to pitch in G'ville.  Here are the players, I feel will be back in Greeneville next year.  It will be a larger number than were here this year.

Possible returnees include:

Ariel Ovando - raw talent still has a great deal of work to do in the field and on the bases.
Darwin Rivera - made a big jump to the Appy after only 13 games in the DSL over 2 years.
Garen Wright - injuries hampered this season for another raw outfielder.
Chan Moon - really started to shine at SS later in the season.  Had a few flashes at the plate as well.
Adrian Houser - don't see him ready for older competition yet. 
Jose Perdomo - if he is not hurt, I could see him back for a 2nd year.  Didn't pitch after 7/18.

If those six players return, that would be a solid foundation for a good team for 2012.  Because there is always next year.

Appy Astros G-Stros End of July Report

We have the first 40 games of baseball under out belts in Greeneville. The G-Stros are mired in last place in the Appy League West but there are bright spots. Let's look and see what the first 40 games tell us and who we need to be watching for the next 28 games of the season.

Hitters:

Ernesto Genoves is a 20 year old catcher from Venezuela. He has exceeded expectations with his bat this season. After hitting .278 last year in 23 games with the GCL Astros, he is hitting .373 in Greeneville in 20 games. He has shown the ability to get on base at a .462 OBP clip and is slugging a solid .627. He is second on the team in doubles, HR and extra base hits.

Chase Davidson (21 years old - 1B) is the leading slugger on the team. He leads the team with 9 HR, 10 doubles and 20 extra base hits. He is hitting .313 on the season and thanks to his 21 walks, he has a OBP of .411. He has struck out 43 times in 128 AB.

Jordan Scott (19 years old - LF/CF) is hitting .320 during his time with Greeneville this season. He snapped a 9 game hitting streak last night. He leads the team in hits and has been a consistent source of runs at the top of the line up.

Ariel Ovando (17 year old - RF) while his playing time has been limited by dings (He played in 20 out of 30 games in July). His developing nicely. He is learning a great deal in a hurry. He is hitting .269 but 7 of his 21 hits have been for extra bases. What he does in August will be interesting to watch.

Others to keep eyes on:
Jesse Wierzbicki - Old man of position players catching up to Appy League.
Darwin Rivera - Struggles in field impacting his bat, can he turn it around?
Garen Wright - showing improvement over his 2010 GCL numbers but has been missing time with a bum shoulder. Will he get to see many more at bats this summer?
Josh Magee - Hit .133 in 9 games in June. Hit .232 in 21 games in July. Finished July hitting in 6 of 7 games. Is he putting it together for August?
Luis Alverez - starting to show signs he is returning to the form he was in in 2009 prior to the knee injury.

Starting Pitchers:

Rookie ball stats are pretty useless. You get players with a wide variety of ability and at a wide variety of development. For pitchers, I have found it helpful to drop their best & worst outings from their stats to get a better picture of what the true stat might look like. For more on my rational, check out my post that looked at the 2010 pitching staff where I explained the Appy Astros Adjusted Scoring System (3A2S).

Luis Ordosgoitti is a 19 year old from Venezuela. He had been stellar through his first five starts. The last two showed some struggle. He was placed on the 7 day DL and then sent down to the GCL when Adrian Houser was brought up. His demotion caught me off guard, I am hoping it is just a rehab type of assignment. At this point in the season, his ERA is 4.37 but he has just walked 3 batters and fanned 32 in 35 IP. When you take out his best & worst starts, his ERA drops t0 3.67.

Chris Lee was the highest round draft pick from 2011 (4th) on the team prior to Houser's arrival. Lee has struggled with control, walking 18 batters in 25 innings. Though he showed some progress from his two starts in June (6 BB in 3 2/3 IP) and July (12 BB in 21 1/3 IP). He appears to struggle more with his control out of the stretch than in the wind up. His ERA is currently 6.84. His 3A2S ERA is 6.48.

Tyson Perez is the 21 year old pitcher out of Stanford drafted in the 17th round. He has been inconsistent which is not unusual for Rookie Ball. He currently has a 5.63 ERA through 8 starts. He started August with his best start of the season going 5 innings giving up no earned runs on four hits. When you take out his best start and worst start (8 ER in 1 1/3 IP) of the season, his 3A2S ERA drops to 4.21. He has less than one walk a start on the season.

Richardo Batista is a LHP repeating the Appy League this season at 19 years old. He has been outstanding at times with two starts being scoreless through 5 innings. Then he has also been very average not even getting to the 5th inning in 4 of his 7 starts. He tends to nibble when he pitches. If it is a free swinging team, he is good to go. If they are patient, he goes deep in counts and batters are walked. The key for Batista is throwing his curve for strikes. ERA 5.58/ 3A2S ERA 5.02.

Jose Perdomo is a 19 year old RHP from Venezuela. He put up outstanding numbers in the GCL last year. The Appy League hasn't been so kind. He currently totes a 9.00 ERA in 5 starts. His 3A2S ERA is higher at 9.52. The one bright spot in his numbers is he still has more K's than IP (21/ 18). He has not pitched since 5/18 but isn't on the DL. There may be an issue they hope rest will fix be it physical, mental or mechanical.

Jermain Cotton is repeating the Appy. He has made four starts and four relief appearances. However, he has not had a relief appearance shorter than four innings, though he has had two starts shorter than three innings, I am lumping him in with the starters. Cotton throws pretty hard. His ERA for the season thus far is 5.76. His 3A2S ERA is 4.81. He appears to be more comfortable in long relief as his relief ERA is 2.76.

The one to keep an eye on for the last month of the season is Adrian Houser who had a solid start in his first Appy League outing. He was drafted in the 2nd round this year.

Relief Pitchers:

The bullpen has improved as the season has come along. There is some maturity in the pen and some of the top performers are some of the oldest players on the roster. Let's look at a few of the highlights.

Jeremiah Meiners is a 22 year old LHP who was drafted in the 40th round in 2010. He has fanned 23 batters in 24 innings and only walked four. He has held opponents to a .204 batting average. His ERA is an even 3.00 on the season.

Matison Smith is a 23 year old RHP who was a NDFA signed in 2010. He has finished a team leading 9 games for the G-Stros and has 2 saves. He only had three walks through his first 19 1/3 IP before giving up two in his last outing. In fact, his last two outings have taken his ERA from 2.12 to 3.38. It will be interesting to watch how he does the rest of the season.

Steve Martin is a 23 year old RHP out of Texas A&M who was drafted in the 37th round this year. He has appeared in 8 games and has a 1.38 ERA (2 ER in 13 IP). Opponents are hitting just .098 against him. He has not allowed a hit in 5 of his 8 outings.

Rodney Quintero is repeating the Appy this year after only making three appearances in 2010. The 21year old 25th round draft pick from 2010 has show some promise this year by not allowing an earned run in six of his 11 outings and striking out 24 batters in 19 1/3 innings. However he has also been very hittable at times giving up a total of 19 hits in 19 1/3 IP.

Zach Dando is a 20 year old drafted in the 32nd round this year. He had a rough first outing of the season but has bounced back with a solid 2.95 ERA in July. He has 22 strike outs in 19 1/3 IP.

James Propst is a 22 year old drafted in the 38th round this year. He has been inconsistent mixing six scoreless outings with three outings where he gave up three or more runs. He has fanned 29 batters in 25 IP.

Eye Witness Report - G-Stros Get 9 Runs Off 4 Hits

The G-Stros no longer have the worst record in the Appy League. With Burlington's game last night suspended, and Greeneville winning 9-5 over Princeton, the G-Stros own a half game lead over the Royals.

Adrian Houser made his G-Stros debut last night with a solid outing. Through 4 innings, he had only faced two batters over the mminimum. His fast ball had nice pop and his curve ball appeared to be keeping the P-Rays hitters off balance often inducing weak ground balls. He didn't walk a batter until the 5th inning but he went to full counts on several batters.

Ump Blows Call - Manager Ejected
Houser ran into some trouble in the 5th. With two outs, one run in and a runner at second, Ryan Brett hits a long fly ball to center field. Jordan Scott ran back and appeared to have tracked it down but the ball went over his outstretched glove for a double. I am not sure if he missed judged it or took his eye off of it looking for the wall, either way, I was surprised when he couldn't corral the ball. In fact, even one of the umpires thought he should have caught it because he called him out. Yes he called the batter out an a fly ball that bounced on the warning track. Houser is on the mound ready to face the next batter when some of the players start off and other players are confused. After a few seconds, the players jog off the field. At that point, the P-Rays manager Mike Johns comes out and argues the call. After confirming with the home plate ump, the field ump changes the call to safe and calls the G-Stros back on the field. Omar Lopez comes out first and was irate. After several steps over the line, he was ejected and hitting coach Josh Bonafay & pitching coach Rick Aponte split the manager duties for the rest of the night. That would be the last batter Houser faced. He finished the night allowing three runs on five hits in 4 2/3 IP. If Scott is able to track down that ball in center, his night is over with one run on four hits in five innings. A game of inches.

Matison Smith was called in from the pen and had uncharacteristic struggles. He was hit hard (two doubles and a HR) and he walked two batters. He only had three walks coming into the night in 19 IP. Yet he was the pitch of record when the Astros began their improbable comeback.

Seven runs on one hit
After being stymied for much of the game by P-Rays starter Reinaldo Lopez, the G-Stros made their move in the 7th. Down 5-2, Greeneville used five walks, an error, a balk and a grand slam from Jose Vargas to push 7 runs across the plate. It was Vargas' first HR of the season. It was a well hit ball that bounced off the top of the wall in right center field. Several diligent Astros staffers literally beat the bushes to come up with the HR ball so they could return it to Vargas.

From there, bullpen did it's job. In the last two innings, Mark Jones, Scott Zuloaga and Steve Martin shut the P-Rays down, allowing a hit an inning but fanning four of the last six outs.

Impressions
Houser had a very solid outing. He is a tall, athletic looking right hander with a very smooth delivery. His off speed stuff had Princeton batters out in front several times during the game.

Ovando got two RBI's last night. One on a grounder to 2nd with the bases loaded that the second baseman couldn't get out of his glove to turn he double play and settled for a force at 1st. The second RBI came on a walk. He did have a solid hit through the right side early in the game. He made a laser of a throw to the cutoff man on a double hit in the 9th.

On the Princeton side of the equation, their shortstop was impressive. Jake Hager, the Rays 2011 1st round pick, is 18 years old and looks like a giant at SS, though he is listed at just 6' 1". He turned three double plays where he fielded the ball, touched second and threw the batter out. There was another time he fielded a ball that would have resulted in similar play had the runner not stolen second earlier in the at bat. It was amazing how well he was positioned all night. At the plate, he went 0-4 but is hitting .257 through 19 Appy League games and is hitting .341 in his last 10 despite going just 1 for his last 13.