Whatever Happened to the 2005 Appy League Top 20

My post on what happened to the 2004 Top 20 list was well received so I decided to do one more update this off season. Let's look at the 2005 Baseball America Appy League Top 20. Here is the summary:

To date, six players have made their MLB debut, with Colby Rasmus being the most notable position player and Jesse Litsch being the most notable pitcher. Five players topped out at AAA, with Brandon Erbe being the only one who has a contract for 2013.  Seven players have made it as high as AA.  Tyler Herron is the lone one of that group who is still in affiliated ball after signing with the Nationals after a successful stint in Indy Ball in 2012 and a good winter ball season in Puerto Rico. One player made it just to High A ball and one player never made it out of rookie ball.

Max Ramirez gets the award for most frequent flier miles.  He has been drafted, traded, waived and signed with a total of eight teams.  Aaron Cunningham is a close second with six teams.

Sometimes players paths cross. In spring training, Cunningham and Brandon Snyder will be competing for OF playing time with the Rangers.  Last year, Herron and Eric Campbell were on the same indy ball team in the Northern League.

Here is the full list and update on each player:


In addition to the six who have made the MLB debut, 19 others have had at least a cup of coffee in the bigs. The 2005 list of players who didn't qualify for the Appy list because of lack of playing time in the league is impressive: Elvis Andrus, Yunel Escobar, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Garza,  and Kevin Slowey. Each either got to the Appy too late in the season or left too early.  The one player who played the full year with descent numbers that might have been missed on the list is Chris Carter who made the Baseball America Top 100 Prospects list in 2009 (#76), 2010 (#28) and 2011 (#91). He hit .283 with an OPS of .835 as an 18 year old with Bristol.  He struck out 64 times in 65 games.  A trend that has followed him as he has climbed up the baseball career ladder. 

Whatever Happened To The 2004 Appy League Top 20

People get excited about the top prospect list that come out once the season is over.  They talk about which players are overrated and which are underrated.  They discuss the players who were left off the list.  One thing that most folks don't do, is go back and see how predictive the list was of future success.

I started following minor league baseball when the G-Stros came to town in 2004.  So that class has always been one of my favorites.  I spent some time over the last few days researching what happened to the Baseball American Appy League Top 20 from 2004.  Below are the results.



Here are some observations:

• 36 players who played in the Appy in 2004 have played in the major leagues.  Only eight of those are on this list. In fairness, some of the 28 players not on the list might not have spent enough time in the league to be listed.  
• Four players never made it to AA.  Seven players never made it to AAA.  
• Only one player who hasn't made it to the majors is still in affiliated ball (Jordan Parraz). 
•  Gio Gonzalez is the player with the most success.  After that, it is mostly relievers and role players.
• Players develop, injury and teams need to promote can impact MLB debut date.  
• Injuries and off field issues derailed several of these prospects. 

This is a reminder to not take these list too seriously.  They are not prophetic but projective. 

Keith Law Doesn't Think Much of Folty & Combined Top 10

Kieth Law, from ESPN.com, came out with his top 10 Astros prospects today. I won't give you the list because you have to pay to be an ESPN insider to obtain such priceless information. I will tell you that Jordan Lyles is #1 again. I will also fill you in on the fact that he doesn't put Folty in the top 10. He apparently talked to sources who told him "Folty threw very poorly in rookie ball, and I got two really negative reports on his stuff and body language." That wasn't what I saw but hey I am just a fan. Anyway, another good showing for former G-Stros as they made up 60% of the his Top 10.

That makes the 5th list that is out. I have been keeping track and thought it would be fun to combine all the list. I gave the # 1 ranked player 20 points, since two of the list (MinorLeagueBall.com & Baseball Prospectus) have a top 20 ranking. Here is what a combined Top 10 would look like:

1. Jordan Lyles - (100 points) - When you are #1 on all the list it is not a surprise to be ranked #1 on the combined list.

2. Delino DeShields Jr. - (94 pts) - He has been #2 on all list except one where he was #3.

3. Jonathon Villar - (74 pts) - This is where the opinions start diverging. He has been as high as #3 but as low as #9 but he is consistantly in the top 10. He actually tied in points with the #4 player be was placed #3 due to virtue of having a higher single ranking.

#4 Tanner Bushue - (74 pts) - His rankings ranged from #5 to #8. But again he is consistently on the list and that earned him a higher ranking than some other guys ranked ahead of him on individual list.

#5 Jio Mier - (70 pts) - He can thank Hard Ball Times for a #2 ranking that secured him a spot in the Top 5. In my mind he is closer to 7-9 range.

#6 Mike Foltynewicz - (70 pts) - He was 3rd or 4th in every ranking except Keith Law's where he wasn't included in the top 10 at all, so he falls to 6th tied with Jio. As your teachers used to tell you, 0's will kill your average.

#7 J. D. Martinez - (67 pts) - He was ranked as high as 5th and as low as 10th. This is a fair grade for where he fits in the org.

#8 Austin Wates - (66 pts) - He was rated as high as 4th but as low as 14th. I think he is slightly higher than this.

#9 Jimmy Parades - (51 pts) - Another case of a zero hurting his score. He was ranked between #6 & #10 on the rest of the rankings.

#10 Ariel Ovando - (40 pts) - A kid who hasn't played an inning of pro ball was ranked 3rd by Keith Law & 4th by Baseball Prospectus. That along with a #16 ranking from MinorLeagueBall.com, brings him into the Top 10 despite not being on two list at all.

I will be posting my top 10 in the next few days. It is not of all Astros prospect but just of those who have played at Pioneer Park.

So what do you think? Does this do any better job of matching what you believe to be true about the ranking of the Astros prospects?

Another Top 10, Scouting Jordan Lyles, Going to Camp, & More

A great deal has been going on with former Greeneville Astros over the past week or so. I have not been able to keep up with getting it up here. Let's do some catching up.

The Hardball Times Top 10

Top 10 list continue to come out. The most recent one is from the folks at The Hardball Times. With six former G-Stros, their top 10 contains the most former G-Stros of any list so far. Here is their list:

1. Jordan Lyles ('08)
2. Jio Mier ('09)
3. Delino Deshields ('10)
4. Mike Foltynewicz ('10)
5. Tanner Bushue
6. Jonathon Villar
7. Jimmy Parades
8. Austin Wates
9. J. D. Martinez ('09)
10. Jay Austin ('08)

Don't forget the combined top 10 list spreed sheet I have compiled here.

What folks are saying about Jordan Lyles

Jordan Lyles is the clear #1 prospect in the Astros organization. He is regularly seen as one of the top 50 prospects in all of Minor League Baseball. One list even had him as high as #3. AstroAndy over at The Crawfish Boxes, has compiled a compilation of all the scouting reports on Jordan Lyles. So if you have any questions about what he throws, that is a great one stop place to check.

Spring Training Invites

While getting the call up to the big leagues is the ultimate call up, getting to go to big league spring training is an honor as well. This year, several former Greeneville Astros will be in big league camp in Kissimmee in a few weeks. Last week, 10 minor leaguers were invited to spend camp with the big boys. Six of those minor league players are former G-Stros. They are:

Koby Clemens (05)
Rene Garcia (08)
Jordan Lyles (08)
Jio Mier (09)
J. D. Martinez (09)
Patrick Urckfitz (08)

The only one that was a total surprise was Jio Mier since he is possibly going to repeat low A ball in Lexington this year. It was explained that his inclusion was due to a contractual agreement.

The rational behind these young guys going to big league camp was explained by Astros General Manager Ed Wade:

“It gives these kids the chance to come in and see what the atmosphere is like on the big league side,” Wade said. “And it gives Millsie and the coaches the chance to see some of the guys we talk about a lot.

“And frankly, it allows us to show that we’re making progress in player development.”

These six will be joining former G-Stros Douglas Arguello (04) & Sammy Gervacio (05) who had already received invites after signing new minor league contracts. Those who will be there as a part of the Astros 40 man roster include:

Fernando Abad (07)
Jorge De Leon (08)
Arcenio Leon (07-08)
Henry Villar (08)
J.R. Towles (04)

That makes 13 of the 62 players on the spring roster are former G-Stros.

Last Link - Jermaine Cotton is keeping fit playing winter ball in his native St. Thomas, Virgin Islands. The paper thinks he played last year in South Carolina and not Tennessee. I would be willing to go set them straight on the geography, if someone would finance a trip for me to the Virgin Islands. Tough job but someone needs to do it. Jermaine did capture the small town feel of Greeneville well.

"Basically, there's not a whole lot else to do in Greeneville," Cotton said this week. "It's sleep, eat and baseball."

Baseball America's Top 10 Full of Former Greeneville Astros

Baseball America released their Astros' Top 10 Prospects today. Five out of the six top ranked players were former G-Stros!

Here is the list with the year they played for Greeneville in parenthesis, along with any other accolades BA gave them:

1.	Jordan Lyles, rhp (2008) - best slider, best change, best control
2.	Delino DeShields Jr., of/2b (2010) - fastest base runner, best athlete
3.	Jonathan Villar, ss
4.	Mike Foltynewicz, rhp (2010) - best fastball
5.	Jio Mier, ss (2009)
6.	J.D. Martinez, of (2009) - best hitter for average
7.	Jimmy Paredes, inf
8.	Tanner Bushue, rhp
9.	Austin Wates, of
10.	Ariel Ovando, of

Villar & Paredes joined the Astros organization via trades this year. Buchue was a 2009 draft pick who jumped from the GCL to Lexington, bypassing Greeneville. Wates was a 2010 draftee out of Virginia Tech who started at Tri Cities. Ovando is a young Dominican prospect who was signed this summer for over 2 million dollars. I hope he makes his debut this summer in Greeneville.

Other former G-Stros listed among the best of the organization include:

Telvin Nash - best power
R. J. Alaniz - best curveball
Roberto Pena - best defensive catcher

I have created a google docs spread sheet that combines all the top prospect list I come across. You can access it at this link. Those on the spread sheet highlighted in green & bolded spent some time in Greeneville.

Looking back at BA's Top 20's

Baseball America released it's top 20 Appy League prospects today. There are three 2010 Greeneville Astros in the top 11 on the list. Delino DeShields Jr is at #5, Mike Foltynewicz is at #7 and Vincent Velasquez is at #11. These list create a great deal of excitement when they come out. The question is how true a predictor are they? Let's look at Astros who have made the list since 2004. I have linked to each year's list below.

2004- Four Greeneville players made the list. This group was led by Mitch Einertson at #1. Mitch never made it past AA and is now out of baseball after continued issues with drugs.

Next on the list was #10 Troy Patton. Patton has spent a little bit of time in the majors and is probably looking to spend much more time there next year. An injury slowed his quick path to the top.

Juan Gutierrez was #12 on the list. He like Patton made his debut with the Astros in the bigs but was then traded. This year, Gutierrez has become the closer for the D-Backs. Since the all star break, he has 10 saves, and an ERA of 2.86.

Jordan Parraz was #13 on the list. Parraz is the third member of this group to be traded. He is in the Royals organization now and has made it as far as AAA. He has been a solid fielder but not consistent with the bat.

Big name on the list is A's pitcher Gio Gonzalez at #5.

Misses & Snubbs (a pitcher & fielder who have already seen significant MLB time and weren't on the list): Wade Davis (Rays) Carlos Gomez (Twins)

2005 - Another year with 4 prospects making the list. The top rated G-Stro was Josh Flores at #8. Flores was moving up well until he blew out both knees. During his return from that, he had another knee injury. He could never quiet return after missing that much time. He was released last season.

Eli Iorg was #14 on the list in 2005. He was released after making it to AAA. He is out of baseball.

Next was #16 Koby Clemens. He has blossomed as a hitter but has yet to find a comfortable position. Though it looks like he had a pretty good year at first in AA this year.

Finally we have Ryan Mitchell at #19. This promising RHP was released after the next season and has been toiling in independent ball since then.

Big name on the list is #2 Colby Rasmus.

Misses & Snubbs: Brian Duensing (Twins), Chris Carter (A's)

2006 - Only two players made the list in 2006. Ronald Ramirez was listed at #17. He suffered an arm injury the next season and never was the same after. The middle infielder made it to high A ball in 2009 but that is where his career ended.

Sergio Severino was at #20 and made it as far as high A ball. At that point, he struggled to get batters out and ended up being released.

Not on the list but mentioned as those who just missed the cut that year was Polin Trinidad. He has made it as far as AAA but was sent back down to AA at the end of this season.

Big name on the list is Tommy Hanson at #4.

Misses & Snubbs: No pitcher , Danny Valencia (Twins)

2007 - The G-Stros had just two representatives again this year and again, they were toward the bottom of the list. Ebert Rosario was the #17 rated prospect as a 3rd baseman. This year, he was sent back to the GCL to become a pitcher.

Kyle Greenwalt was the #20 selection. He just finished a descent year in Lancaster and is slated to pitch in the Arizona Fall League (AFL). He should be in AA next season.

Big name on the list is Neftali Feliz at #4

Misses & Snubbs - Fernando Abad (Astros), (no fielder)

2008 - The G-Stros had a much better showing on the list than the two prior years. Leading the way was Jordan Lyles at #7. He has made it up to AAA and is expected to be in the majors next season at some point in time. He is the current #1 prospect for the Astros.

Jay Austin checked in at #12. The raw & toolsy center fielder has climbed his way through high A ball as a teenager. He is going to spend some time in the AFL as well this fall.

Frederico Hernandez rounded out the Astros on the list at #18. The catcher has already put in some time at AA.

Missed & Snubbed: Henry Villar (Astros), (No fielder)

2009 -The G-Stros placed three on the list again in 2009. Jio Mier started things off at #2 on the list. He has struggled in his first full season but is still very young. But expectations are high.

Juri (Yuri) Perez came in at #10. Unfortunately he injured his elbow in his last start of 09 and was just starting rehab starts in the GCL at the end of 2010. Keep an eye on him to see what happens. He has a great change up and a good fastball.

Jonathon Meyer was at #18 on the list. He also had a less than stellar season at Lexington but better than Miers so he hasn't caught as much flack.

Biggest mover on the list is #1 Julio Teheran who has already made seven starts at AA for the Braves.

So What?
What does this tell us? Not too much. I enjoy these list and I am glad BA puts them out. However, I think this proves Baseball America doesn't have a crystal ball. Not that they ever said they did. It proves that injuries can derail a players career. If shows that players personal issues can get in the way of development. It shows that what looks good in short season ball doesn't always project down the road. It proves that there are some very good players who come through the Appy Leagues.

What does all this tell you?