Last year, I looked back at the where the 2009 GCL players spent their seasons and then made predictions where the 2010 folks would spend their 2011. I didn't do to badly on the prediction piece. All four of the players I predicted to be in G'ville (Moon, Monzon, Smith & Jones) were there. Of the three I projected for Tri Cities, two of the three spent time there this year (Scott & Rosario) while one player was released (Ditthardt). I didn't fair as well in Lexington where I only one (Perez) out of three spent any time there.
Let's do the same process for this year:
Where 2010 GCL Astros Spent 2011:
Lets look at only those who spent more than a handful of games in the GCL in 2010 and find out where they spent 2011.
Repeat of GLC
Of the 39 players who spent significant time on the GCL roster in 2010, 11 (28%) of them returned to the GCL for 2011. That is a slight increase from the 26% (9 players) who returned from 2009 to 2010. Let's look at a few of the returnees to see who they did in their second stint.
Jose Fernandez (SS) - The young shortstop showed slight improvement at the plate. His average and OBP raised slightly. He stolen base total jumped from four to 11 while holding his caught stealing to three. His fielding showed significant improvement. He dropped from 32 errors in 265 chances to 15 errors in 203 chances. He will still be 18 when spring training rolls around next season.
Luca Martone (2B) - Showed a huge jump at the plate this season in the GCL. His average went from .173 to .314 and his OPS jumped from .419 to .770. He remained solid in the field. He will also be 18 when spring training starts.
Kyle Reddinger (1B) - The 11th round draft pick in 2010 went backwards in 2011. His average dropped from .219 to .148 and his OPS dropped from .568 to .436. He will be 20 when spring training starts.
Pedro Gomez (RHP) - His ERA dropped from 7.76 down to 4.18. His WHIP dropped from 1.979 to 1.429. This drop was highlighted by his hits dropping from 54 in 31 1/3 IP to 21 in 28 IP. However, his BB jumped from 8 to 19. He will be 20 when spring training starts.
Evan Grills (LHP) - The 10th pick in the 2010 draft might be ready for a big jump in 2012. He showed good progress in 2011. He appeared in 13 games (33 1/3 IP) and amassed a 3.00 ERA. He only allowed 7 walks to go along with 33 hits for a 1.212 WHIP and he fanned 29 batters. He will be 19 at the start of spring training.
Kirshawn Holley (RHP) - Holley only made one appearance in 2010, so 2011 was for all intents and purposes, his first season. He had an impressive showing. In 13 appearances (16 2/3 IP) he fanned 15 while only allowing 12 hits and 8 unintentional walks. He will turn 20 just before spring training starts.
Francis Ramirez (RHP) - He repeated the GCL for most of the season and while his numbers didn't improve from an outcome standpoint. He continued to miss bats consistently. This warranted a late season jump to Greeneville where he fared better in ERA and showed better control. He will be 20 when spring training starts.
Promoted to Greeneville
Greeneville was a popular landing spot for the GCL class of 2010. They had 14 players (36%) make the jump to the Appy League. This is an increase from the 24% who made the same jump last year. Here is a look at what the experience was like for some of the more notable players to make the leap.
Ernesto Genoves (C) - He looked poised for a break out season after posting a batting average over .370 for the first 20 games. However he faded in August, hitting just 172 for his last 18 games. However, his season average of .280 was still an increase from his GCL numbers and his OPS jumped .140 points. He will still be 20 when spring training begins.
Jordan Scott (LF) - Scott actually spent some time this year in Lexington before the short season teams started but he spent the majority of the season in Greeneville so he is listed here. He had an All Star caliber season in Greeneville. He was named the team MVP after hitting .337 in 60 games in Greeneville. His defense will need some work but has shown he is ready for full season ball, and he will just be 19 when spring training starts.
Joshua Magee (2B) - Magee showed a significant amount of development this season. He only hit .133 in June (9 games), he hit .232 in July (21 games) and then capped off the season by hitting .376 in August. His August was helped by a 12 for 12 streak during the month. Overall, his average jumped 56 points and his OPS rose 134 points. He will be 20 when spring training starts.
Chan Moon (SS) - Moon showed a descent glove but his offensive numbers dropped from the GCL days. He showed alittle more power but everything else showed decline. Although he did have better numbers in August (.256 avg with .680 OPS). He will be turning 21 during spring training next year.
Luis Ordosgoitti (RHP) - When as an 18 year old, you come into the APPY and strike out 42 batters in 44 IP while only walking seven, you qualify as a pitcher to watch. He needs to work on missing bats a bit more. He gave up 47 hits in those 44 IP. He will be 19 when spring training starts.
Jose Perdomo (RHP) - Perdomo didn't fare as well as Ordosgoitti. In fact, he was shut down in mid July and didn't appear again. In his five starts (18 IP), he surrendered 33 hits and four HR. He did fan 21 during those appearances. Perdomo will be 20 at the start of spring training 2012.
Jeremiah Meiners (LHP) - I always like to pull for the underdog. Meiners was a 40th round draft pick who didn't fare too well in the GCL in 2010 (6.95 ERA in 22 IP). However, he showed growth in Greeneville. In 40 1/3 IP (20 games), he fanned 42 batters and only allowed 34 hits and 10 walks for a WHIP of 1.09. He will be 23 when spring training rolls around so the odds are against him but I hope the growth continues.
Promoted to Tri Cities
There were four players (10%) who were promoted to Tri Cities from the 2010 team. That is up from 2 players or 6% from the 09 group. All of those promoted were pitchers.
Kristian Bueno (LHP) - Bueno struggled with his control in SS-A ball. He walked 19 batters in 20 2/3 IP. He will be 23 when 2012 spring training starts.
Dayan Diaz (RHP) - Diaz put on a show in Tri Cities. His season ERA was an impressive 1.98 over 50 IP (19 games). More impressive was the 70 strike outs in those 50 innings pitched. Diaz missed all of 2009 and most of 2010 with injury so his 2011 performance puts his name on the radar for 2012. He will 23 just before spring training begins.
Juri Perez (RHP) - Perez is working his way back from an injury at the end of the 09 season that stunted his development. He show some signs of returning to his strong 2009 form (67 Ks in 67 1/3 IP) but there is still a long way to go (5.48 ERA). He will still only be 21 when spring training rolls around.
Ebert Rosario (RHP) - Rosario continued his effort to covert from an infielder to a pitcher. He struggled with his control in the NYPenn League, walking 14 batters in 23 2/3 IP but he also fanned 27. Still a work in progress. He will turn 25 after the season starts next year, so time is limited.
Promoted to Lexington
There was only one player(3%) who spent the majority of 2010 in the GCL who made the jump to the SALLY League. That is down from four in 2010.
Roberto Pena (C) - In his first full season, Pena showed promise, nabbing 39% of runners who tried to steal. However, the wear and tear of the long season appeared to catch up to him. His batting numbers peaked in July (.258 avg & .638 OPS) but waned as the season went along. He is seen as a promising catching prospect by those in Houston.
So far, we have covered 30 of the 39 players who spent any significant time on the 2010 GCL Astros roster, that leaves us with 9 players who were released, retired or were placed on the restricted list before the end of the 2011 season. That list is as follows:
B J Hagans
Back to the Future
So now who do I think could make the move this year. Any of the
projections here are likely to be impacted by the draft, and any
prospects picked up in trades. Let’s see who the crystal ball says we
should keep an eye on for next year.
Yonathon Mejia (2B) - After improving his average from .235 in the DSL to .329 in the GCL, Mejia is ready to move up. However, with his age being 19 next year, I don't expect him to jump to Tri Cities but it is possible. He needs time in the field. He was at DH for 21 of his games in the GCL.
Luca Martone (2B) -He got the majority of the starts at 2B for the GCL team but he only appeared in 29 games. I can see he and Mejia sharing time at 2B at Pioneer Park next season.
Kenny Diaz (C) - It is a small sample size but in 13 games, he hit .281 and he threw out 5 out of 9 runners trying to steal. He will be 19 when spring training begins.
Kelvin Vizcaino (LF) - Average increased from .191 to .244 in his jump from the DSL to the GCL.
Javaris Reynolds (CF) - The 7th round draft pick out of H. S. only hit .228 this season but he plays a solid center field. He might repeat the GCL but I wouldn't be surprised to see him in Greeneville.
Kirshawn Holley (RHP) & Evan Grills (LHP) - They give every indication that it is time to move up.
Juan Mojica (RHP) - His 1.42 ERA earned a late season promotion to Greeneville in 2011.
Blake Ford (RHP) - The 44th round pick for 2011 appeared in 18 games with a 1.90 ERA. Might jump all the way to Lex.
Justin Gill (RHP) - Held opponents to a .210 average in 21 2/3 IP as a 22 year old in the GCL.
Chris Epps (RF/LF) - Hit .304 in 35 games before promotion to Tri Cities. There he hit just just .212 in 70 plate appearances but did crush two HR. Will turn 23 in December.
Feel free to add you ideas about who you think is going where. We will look back at this next year to see how we did.