Welcome to Appy Astros, a blog dedicated to following current & former Greeneville Astros, the Appalachian League affiliate of the Houston Astros. Here you will find reports on current G-Stros, updates on the development of former G-Stros and occasionally an update on what has happened to the guys who have hung up their spikes.
Showing posts with label top prospects. Show all posts
Showing posts with label top prospects. Show all posts

Thursday, January 10, 2013

Whatever Happened to the 2005 Appy League Top 20

My post on what happened to the 2004 Top 20 list was well received so I decided to do one more update this off season. Let's look at the 2005 Baseball America Appy League Top 20. Here is the summary:

To date, six players have made their MLB debut, with Colby Rasmus being the most notable position player and Jesse Litsch being the most notable pitcher. Five players topped out at AAA, with Brandon Erbe being the only one who has a contract for 2013.  Seven players have made it as high as AA.  Tyler Herron is the lone one of that group who is still in affiliated ball after signing with the Nationals after a successful stint in Indy Ball in 2012 and a good winter ball season in Puerto Rico. One player made it just to High A ball and one player never made it out of rookie ball.

Max Ramirez gets the award for most frequent flier miles.  He has been drafted, traded, waived and signed with a total of eight teams.  Aaron Cunningham is a close second with six teams.

Sometimes players paths cross. In spring training, Cunningham and Brandon Snyder will be competing for OF playing time with the Rangers.  Last year, Herron and Eric Campbell were on the same indy ball team in the Northern League.

Here is the full list and update on each player:


In addition to the six who have made the MLB debut, 19 others have had at least a cup of coffee in the bigs. The 2005 list of players who didn't qualify for the Appy list because of lack of playing time in the league is impressive: Elvis Andrus, Yunel Escobar, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Garza,  and Kevin Slowey. Each either got to the Appy too late in the season or left too early.  The one player who played the full year with descent numbers that might have been missed on the list is Chris Carter who made the Baseball America Top 100 Prospects list in 2009 (#76), 2010 (#28) and 2011 (#91). He hit .283 with an OPS of .835 as an 18 year old with Bristol.  He struck out 64 times in 65 games.  A trend that has followed him as he has climbed up the baseball career ladder. 

Sunday, December 16, 2012

Whatever Happened To The 2004 Appy League Top 20

People get excited about the top prospect list that come out once the season is over.  They talk about which players are overrated and which are underrated.  They discuss the players who were left off the list.  One thing that most folks don't do, is go back and see how predictive the list was of future success.

I started following minor league baseball when the G-Stros came to town in 2004.  So that class has always been one of my favorites.  I spent some time over the last few days researching what happened to the Baseball American Appy League Top 20 from 2004.  Below are the results.



Here are some observations:
  • 36 players who played in the Appy in 2004 have played in the major leagues.  Only eight of those are on this list. In fairness, some of the 28 players not on the list might not have spent enough time in the league to be listed.  
  • Four players never made it to AA.  Seven players never made it to AAA.  
  • Only one player who hasn't made it to the majors is still in affiliated ball (Jordan Parraz). 
  •  Gio Gonzalez is the player with the most success.  After that, it is mostly relievers and role players.
  • Players develop, injury and teams need to promote can impact MLB debut date.  
  • Injuries and off field issues derailed several of these prospects. 
This is a reminder to not take these list too seriously.  They are not prophetic but projective. 

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Cumulative Top Prospect List

Updated 2/6/13 to include MLB's changed list after the trade with the A's and Keith Law's list for ESPN.

I enjoy the top prospect list exercise.  It is interesting to see which players are valued by different analyst.  Every year, I try to keep up with the lists when they come out and compare them to each other.  I also like to see what the consensus thought is about players.

Below is the cumulative rankings that have been compiled thus far.  This includes the list from 14 different sources: Baseball America (top 10), Baseball Prospectus (top 10), The Crawfish Boxes (top 30), Fangraphs (top 15), MLB.com (top 20), MinorLeagueBall (top 20), Bleacher Report (top 10), Baseball Prospect Nation (top15), MLB Dirt (top 15), Scouting Book (top 20), Baseball Instinct (top 21), Perfect Game (top 10), Astros County (top 25) and Keith Law - ESPN (top 10).

I continue to tweak this process.  There are two cumulative ranking orders.  The first is the cumulative ranking based on # of list they appeared on and the average ranking. This list is the true consensus as it rewards a player for making more list and lowers a player who was highly ranked but appeared on very few list.  The second cumulative ranking is based on average ranking and then # of list the player appears on.  This rewards a high ranking regardless of how often a player was ranked.  The color shade of the name indicates how they were obtained. The key is at the bottom of the list. Here is a link to the google drive spreadsheet for those who don't want to scroll in the window.

Here are some observations about the cumulative list thus far (updated 12/31/12):  
  • There is consensus on the top 11 players on the list.  Six appear on all 14 list, and the five others appear on at least 10 list. 
  • There are a few prospects with wide disparity of ranking:
    • Jonathan Villar is ranked #6 (4x), #7, #8, #9, #11 (2x), # 12, #15, and #25. 
    • Kevin Comer is ranked #9, #14, and #20.  He was also mentioned as an "others" by John Sickels
    • Carlos Perez is ranked as high as #9 and as low as #19.  He appeared on six list. 
    • Nolan Fontana is ranked as high as #9 and as low as #19.  He appears on seven list. 
    • Joe Musgrove is ranked as high as #10 and as low as #22.  He appeared on five list.
    • Teoscar Hernandez, Jose Cisnero, Brad Peacock, and Kyle Weiland all benefit from just appearing on one list. 
  •  There are 49 players who have been included on a list at this time.  Here is the break down of how they were acquired:
    • Via Luhnow Trade -17
    • Via Draft 2012 -11
    • Via Wade Trade - 6
    • Via Draft 2011 - 3
    • Via Draft 2010 -4
    • Via Rule 5 Draft 2012 - 2
    • Via Draft 2009 - 1
    • Via Draft 2008 - 1
    • Via International Free Agency (2007,2008, 2010) -4
  •  That makes 30 out of the 49 have been acquired since Luhnow took over.
  •  12 of the players have played in Greeneville. 

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Baseball American Ranks 3 Former G-Stros in Top 10

Baseball America released their Top 10 Astros prospects for 2011 today.  While those prospects acquired in trades make up over half of the list, former G-Stros still appear on the list. They represent three of the four players on the list drafted by the Astros.

Number eight on the list is Delino DeShields Jr..  He was also mentioned as the fastest base runner in the system.

Number nine on the list is Mike Foltyenwicz. 

Number 10 on the list is Telvin Nash. 

The list of best tools in the system included former Greeneville catcher Roberto Pena as the best defensive catcher in the system. 

Saturday, June 18, 2011

Climbing the Ladder: A look at the Progress of Prospects

(For the last few season, I have been fortunate enough to be asked by the Greeneville Astros to contribute an article for the game day program. Here is my 2011 submission.)

When you attend a game at Pioneer Park, you never know if the player you are watching today will make it to the big leagues in a few years. In the first two months of the 2011 Major League Baseball Season, six former Greeneville Astros have worn major league uniforms this year.

1. Juan Gutierrez, who pitched here in 2004, is in his third season in the bullpen for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Juan had a rough April and a better May before being placed on the disabled list with shoulder soreness.
2. Felipe Paulino (2004) was traded from Houston in the offseason to the Colorado Rockies. His time in Colorado was not effective (7.36 ERA in 18 relief outings) and he was then traded to the Kansas City Royals. Since arriving in KC, Felipe has done well. He did not give up a run in his first two outings (9 1.3 IP).
3. J. R. Towles (2004) earned one of the catching spots out of spring training. He started of the year with a hot April (.364 avg.) but struggled in May (.100 avg.). Due to the injury to Jason Castro in spring training, Towles should get plent of time to work things out at the big league level.
4. Fernando Abad (2007), broke spring training with the Astros but wasn’t very effective. He has was sent down to AAA Oklahoma City in May.
5. Troy Patton (2004) got called up for a cup of coffee with Baltimore and appeared in one game before being sent back down to AAA.
6. The most recent call up was Jordan Lyles (2008). The number one prospect in the Astros system was called up in late May to make two spot starts for Houston. He made his debut in Wrigley Field on 5/31. He pitched outstanding! He didn’t get his first MLB win but he did get his first MLB hit.

Those Still Climbing
Here is a glance team by team at the Houston Astros’ minor league system and which players there are making some noise early in the season.

Oklahoma City RedHawks (AAA)
Many of the AAA leaders last year graduated to the big leagues. There are not many top prospects in AAA this year. In fact, this year’s AAA roster is dominated by players who have MLB experience. Thirteen of the 24 players on the 6/4/11 active roster have at least one game of MLB experience.

Jordan Lyles was the big name to watch here prior to his promotion. There are still a few others to keep an eye on. Some of them are familiar to Greeneville fans.

Koby Clemens (2005) is getting his first taste of AAA baseball. He had a solid April but cooled off some in May. He is one of the youngest position players on the roster, so some growing pains were expected.

Brandon Barnes (2005, 06) continues to show improvement as he climbs the minor league ladder. He started 2011 in AA but was called up to AAA at the end of April. He hit 8 HR in the month of May to take over the team lead. He was also named the teams defensive player of the month.

J. B. Shuck is the baby of the bunch in AAA. The speedy center fielder continues to make a strong impression and is definitely one to keep an eye on.

The final player to watch on this roster is Daniel Meszaros. He was drafted in the 48th round of the 2008 draft. He has quickly climbed to AAA and could be seen in the Houston bullpen before the year is out.

Other former Greeneville players on the roster include: Fernando Abad (2007), Henry Villar (2008) DL, and Douglass Arguello (2004)

Corpus Christi Hooks (AA)
Players who reach AA are very close to the majors. It is becoming more and more common for players to make the jump directly to the big leagues from AA. There are several players here worth keeping an eye on. Here are a few of the Hooks to watch closely.

Former Greeneville fan favorite, Jose Altuve (2008, 09) was promoted to AA on the 1st of June. He had dominated the California league hitting .408 over 52 games with 13 doubles, seven triples and five home runs. He got off to a solid start at AA, getting two or more hits in 6 of his first 8 games at AA. As of 6/10/11, his .412 season average and 101 hits leads all of Minor League Baseball.

Jonathon Villar is a middle infielder who came to the Astros organization from the Phillies in the Roy Oswalt trade. He and Altuve were promoted to AA together and were a solid middle infield together at Lancaster. At just 20 years old, he is very young to be in AA.

J. D. Martinez (2009) is spending his second season in AA. He was promoted here straight from Lexington last season. He is putting up solid numbers despite missing some time with a nagging hamstring pull. He had 23 RBIs in 22 games in the month of April.

Dallas Kuechel has registered a quality start in 6 of his first 9 starts of 2011. The 7th round pick from the 2009 draft might not blow anyone away with his fastball but he knows how to get batters out.

Pat Urckfitz (2008) raised some eyebrows with his performance in both the Arizona Fall League and in the Astros’ spring training where he was one of the final cuts. He has had ups and downs this year in the bullpen but is definitely worth watching.

The AA roster has many more players worth watching they include: J. T. Steele , Xavier Cedeno, Ross Seaton (2008) , Jimmy Parades, Jacob Goebbert, and Kyle Greenwalt (2007, 08).

Other former Greeneville Astros on the roster include: Wlad Sutil (2004), Arcenio Leon (2007, 08), Federico Hernandez (2008), and Sammy Gervacio (2005- rehab from shoulder injury). Brad James (2004, 05) is on their disabled list but at last report was still rehabbing in extended spring training.

Lancaster JetHawks (High A)
The Astros begin their third season in Lancaster of the California League. There are 13 former Greeneville players are with the JetHawks this season. Lancaster is known as a hitters paradise and as such is tough on pitchers. Here are a few players to watch.

Jay Austin (2008) is repeating Lancaster this season. Through 47 games, he is hitting .261 with 12 doubles, three triples and two homers.

Kody Hinze (2008) has put his name out to be watched by virtue of his power bat. The big 1st baseman, who was signed as a non drafted free agent, is leading the California League with 14 HR. His .328 batting average in 53 games is nothing to sneeze at either.

Austin Wates was the 3rd round pick of the 2010 draft out of Virginia Tech. He jumped from Tri Cities to Lancaster this season and has shown it was a wise move. The 22 year old OF is hitting .303 on the season.

Jose Thompson was signed by the Astros this offseason. The Cuban defector is slightly old for the league at 23 but is playing a solid infield and could move quickly up the ladder.

Jonathon Meyer (2009) is the youngest player on the roster. He continues to show improvement in the field as well as at the plate.

Jake Buchanan is a 21 year old right handed pitcher who played college ball at North Carolina State. Through two months of the season, he has a 3.15 ERA in the California League, which is 5th best. He pitched a complete game shutout earlier this year.

Other names to keep an eye on include: Rene Garcia (2008), Grant Hogue (2009), Ben Heath, Jose Cisnero ( 2009), Zachary Grimmett (2008) and Colton Pitkin (2007, 08).
Other former Greeneville Astros include: Miguel Arrendell (2009), Bryce Lane (2010), Hector Rodriguez (2010), Wander Alvino (2008), and Jose Trinidad (2008).

Lexington Legends (Low A)

Lexington is the first stop where players have to adjust to a full season of baseball. This tests a player’s mental and physical toughness as well as giving them a better level of competition. This is a very young team this year. Here are a few guys who started the year 20 or younger and are growing up in the South Atlantic League.

Jiovanni Meir (2009) is spending his second season in Lexington. His numbers are up, especially his power numbers. His defense has improved and he was named a Sally League All Star.

Delino DeSheilds Jr (2010) is learning 2nd base this year in Lexington. He has struggled to make contact, hitting just .219 on the year through the first week in June. However when he makes contact, he is showing some power. He has hit 5 HR and has a total of 17 extra base hits out of 44 hits. Overall, not bad results for one of the youngest players in the league.

Mike Foltyenwicz (2010) is another teen who is growing up in the South Atlantic League. His May statistics indicate some of the progress he is making. During that month, he went 2-2 with a 3.67 ERA.

Tanner Bushue, who will turn 20 this season, was the 2nd round pick in 2009. He is leading the team with 6 wins through his first start in June. He is repeating Lexington this year and is showing solid progress.

Greeneville’s MVP last year, Telvin Nash (2009), was showing great improvement from his solid 2010 season. His season was interrupted by a hand injury after hitting .310 in his first 15 games. He was slated to miss 4 to 6 weeks and it will be interesting to see how he does when he returns to Lexington.

One older guys to pull for is former Greeneville Astro Jorge De Leon (2008). He was here as a shortstop and is now in Lexington as a pitcher. He has acted as the closer for much of the season. He has 7 saves and 21 strike outs in 23 1/3 IP. It is reported that his fastball is in the upper 90’s.

Other names to watch on the Legends roster include: Chris Wallace (2010), Mike Kvasnicka, Carlos Quevedo, and Juan Minaya.

Other former G-Stros who are on the roster include: Luis Cruz, Gabriel Garcia, Ruben Alaniz, David Martinez, Brian Streinlein, Murilo Gouvea, Garrett Bullock, Brad Dydalewicz, Juri Perez, Emilio King, Ben Orloff, Bryce Lane, Roberto Pena, Jhonny Medrano, and Ryan McCurdy.

Short Season Teams
The Astros have opened a new facility last year in the Dominican Republic to host the Dominican Summer League Astros. This facility will help prepare young players for life moving up the ladder both on and off the field. The Gulf Coast League Astros play their games at the Astros’ spring training complex in Kissimmee and will be the first stop for many young draftees and those coming to the United States from the Dominican Academy. The Greeneville Astros as a result, should get players with a little more seasoning. The Tri Cities ValleyCats of the NY Penn League will continue to be the top rung of the short season team ladder.

The overall goal of any player is to traverse the many challenges they face in the minor leagues resulting in a Major League career. The players will push themselves to climb as high as they can to achieve their dreams of playing Major League baseball. In 2011, sit back and enjoy a season of players learning, growing, and hopefully winning as they chase their dreams and reach for the next rung on the ladder.