Eyewitness Report: 6/21/12 Gville 10, Johnson City 3

Tonight, my son & I took in the game at Johnson City.  The game was never really in doubt for Greeneville as they put up five runs in the first and forced Greeneville starter Francis Ramirez to return to the bull pen to throw to stay loose.  The G-Stros sent nine men to the plate in the first.  They tacked on single runs in the second, third & fourth innings before putting up a zero on the board.  They added two more in the seventh to wrap up the scoring. 

In The Field
Defensively, the Astros played error free ball.  They bobbled a few balls on the infield but were able to stay with them and still get outs.  Most of the bounces went their way tonight.  One example of the gracious bounces of the ball tonight is found in the ninth.  MILB described the play this way:

Dutch Deol flies into a force out, right fielder Ariel Ovando to shortstop James Howick. Gerwuins Velazco out at 2nd. Dutch Deol to 1st.

Here is what really happened.  Deol hit a high pop in the grass in shallow right field.  Ovando is coming in and Blasik is going out.  Second baseman Brian Blasik appears to have a bead on the ball but hears Ovando calling him off.  Ovando is right behind Blasik and appears he has decided to give way the the second baseman. Both gave up at the same time and the ball dropped off of Ovando's glove.  The runner at first had frozen on the fly and had no chance to get to second on the play.  So that accounts for the unusual 9-6 put out on the fielders choice.

The Astros also benefited from a botched run down and a bad throw to start a double play that pulled the SS off second and allowed both runners to be safe.  So Johnson City helped.  

On The Mound
Pitching wise, Francis Ramirez had a solid start.  My unofficial pitch count for him was 85 pitches in five innings.  The only really hard hit ball off of him was the double hit by Schaffer.  Everything else were dinks and dunks.  The bullpen came in and threw strikes.  Zachary Hardoin gave up a lead off HR Schaffer but settled down nicely after that.  In his two innings, he threw 27 pitches; with 17 of those counting as strkes.  The next pitcher, Christian Garcia was all around the plate as well, maybe too much as three singles loaded the bases. However he worked his way out of the game.  Garcia came in as a substitution was made at catcher.  I was reminded that it is early in the season as there were several visits between Christian Moronta and Garcia to confer about being on the same page.  Michael Dimock closed it out with a solid ninth.

At The Plate
At the plate the G-Stros were hitting hard line drives all over the field. 

Jean Batista went five for six.  All of his hits were singles but four of the five were hard hit balls. 

Ariel Ovando is crushing the ball.  He went 4 for 5 with two doubles and a triple.He hit the ball to all fields.  He hit a hard line drive down the right field line for a double, a ball off the left field wall for a double and a ball to deep center for a triple.  His strike out late in the game was due to some very hard swings at balls low in the zone.  I think he was going for the home run to complete the cycle. That concerns me a little but I am enjoying seeing the power.  Last year, he had 15 extra base hits in 44 games.  This year, he already has four in the first three games.   

James Howick went 4 for 5 with a double.  He hit a few balls hard but also had some that found holes.  Every good hitter has the ability to find the holes. 

The Astros won the opening series over the Cardinals and now head to Kingport for the weekend. Kingsport is young but talent rich due to the fact they have no Gulf Coast League team this season.  It will be interesting to see how that series goes. 

Age in the Appy and Making the Show

 I did some research over the last few days looking at those who make it to the big leagues from the Appy and the age at which they made their Appy League debut.  The results were interesting. In this post, we will look at the number by year, the number by age,  the number by affiliate, and the number by position player vs. pitcher.

Year to Year
I looked at 2004 - 2009 rosters.  Here are the numbers of players on those rosters who have made it to the show.  If a player repeated, I only listed them in their first season unless their second season was 2004 (there were six such players).

2004 - 31  (16 teens/ 15 older)
2005 - 21  (9 teens/ 12 older)
2006 - 19  (9 teens/ 10 older)
2007 - 16  (8 teens/ 8 older)
2008 - 12  (6 teens/ 6 older)
2009 -  3  (0 teens/ 3 older)

That is a total of 102 players who have made their MLB debut.  Sixty of the 102 have been pitchers and 42 were position players.  One, David Carpenter, started in the Appy as a fielder and then returned when converted to pitcher.  Since he made his MLB debut as a pitcher, I used his pitching debut for his age.

The diminishing number is not a surprise as it takes time for most players to climb the ladder.   It is surprising that the teen to older ratio stays around 50% for all years except 2009.  There were some fast moving teens in 2008.  That group includes Salvador Perez & Kelvin Herrera of the Royals, Julio Teheran & Randell Delgado of the Braves and  Jordan Lyles & Jose Altuve of the Astros.

Age #
You can see from the chart below the the most common ages were 18 (26), 20 (22), 21 (19) and 19 (17) .  You can also see that if you are over 20 in the Appy your chances of making the big leagues decline if you are a position player.
Overall, teens make up 47% of the players who have made their MLB debut from the Appy since 2004.  Teens make up 55.6% of the position players and 40% of the pitchers.

Affiliate Breakdown
In terms of affiliation, the Braves and Twins have had the most players make the majors with 20 each.  With the Braves nine of the 20 made their debut as teenagers.  Elvis Andrus made his debut as a 16 year old.  He is the youngest of the 102.  Other teens in the Braves pipeline included Jason Hayward, Julio Teheran, Randall Degado, Neftali Perez and Matt Harrison.  (note that three of those are now Rangers thanks to the Texeira trade)

With the Twins, they have only had four teenagers make it to the majors.  They accounted for seven of the 19 players who were 21 when they made their Appy debut and four of the 10 players who were 22 when they made their Appy debut.

The Astros and the Cards each had 12 players make it from the Appy to the major leagues.  Six of the 12 Astros who made it all the way were teens when they made their Appy debut.  However, four of those repeated the level (Paulino, Gutierrez, Barthmaier and Altuve). 

The Cards' dozen includes four teens.  With Colby Rasmus being the big name in the bunch.  They had three players who have made it who were 22 during their Appy debut, with David Carpenter being one of those.

The only other affiliate to have at least 10 players was the White Sox.  Seven of their 11 have been 18 or 19 when they made their Appy debut.  Current Astro Lucas Harrell is in this group.  He was 19 when he made his Appy appearance in 2004.

The other affiliates had the following amount of success.

Rays 7 - all teens
Orioles 6 - five teens
Mets 5 - three teens
Indians 3 - no teens
Jays 3 - one teen
Royals 2 - both teens
Mariners 1 - no teens

In fairness, the Indians, Royals, Mariners and Jays have not had continuous presence in the league.   The Indians left Burlington after the 2006 season and the Royals moved in.  The Jays left Pulaski after the 2006 season and the Mariners moved in for the 2008 season. 

Conclusion
These numbers will continue to change over time as more players from 2007, 2008 and 2009 make their path to the majors; be it for a cup of coffee or a hall of fame career.  However, the numbers lead me to the following conclusions:

1. Watch teens in the Appy, especially position players.
2. Pitchers can be slightly older and still be worth watching.
3. Position players over the age of 20 are a long shot.
4. It is okay for teens to repeat but not 20's.

This backs up what my gut and common sense told me but it is always nice to have some facts to back it up.

Does this raise any questions you want answered?  Let me know appyastros(at)gmail.com or on twitter @AppyAstros

New GM and the Short Season

When I saw early this morning that the Astros had hired Jeff Luhnow to be their new GM, I was excited.  His player development experience with the Cardinals is his main calling card.  I have seen the rise in the Johnson City Cardinals over the last few years.

Maybe we can get a glimpse of what to expect by looking at the progress of the Cardinal short season teams.  The Cardinals and Astros both have three short season teams in the United States.  Both have a GCL team, as well as a team in the Appy & NYPL. 

Luhnow took over his role in player development in the fall of 2003.  So lets go back to 2004 and see how each team has fared and what kind of MLB level production has been created. (Players listed don't include rehab stints)

GCL Cards - 2007 to present
2007 - finished in 3rd place with a 24-30 record.  Players with MLB time on roster - 3 (Eduardo Sanchez, Tony Cruz, Pete Kozma).
2008 - finished 17-38 and in last place.
2009 - finished in 3rd with a 25-31 record.
2010 - finished 28-28 and in 3rd place again.
2011 - finished in 2nd with a 31-24 record.

Johnson City Cardinals - Appy League

2004 - posted a 33-35 record and finished 3rd in the Appy West.  Players with MLB time on roster - 1 (Mark Worrell)
2005 - posted a 28 -39 record and finished 5th in the west.  Players with MLB time on roster - 3 (Colby Rasmus, Bryan Anderson, & Daniel Barone.
2006 - posted a 34-34 record and finished 5th again.  Players with MLB time on roster 3 (Brandon Dickson, Luke Gregorson, Kyle McClellan).
2007 - posted a 28-40 record and finished 3rd in the west.  Players with MLB time on roster - 5 (Adron Chambers, Tony Cruz, Pete Kozma, Brian Brodrick, and Eduardo Sanchez).
2008 - posted a 36-30 record and finished 2nd.  Players with MLB time on roster - 1 (David Carpenter - yes the one on the Astros).
2009 - posted a 37-30 record and again finished 2nd.
2010 - eked out a one game lead over the E-Twins for the West pennant with a 42-24 record.
2011 - claimed back to back Appy titles with a 45-23 record.  

New Jersey Cardinals/ State College Spikes/ Batvia Muckdogs Cardinals - NYPL

2004 - finished 2nd in their division with a 41-34 record.  Players with MLB time on roster - 5 - (Joe Mather, Jarett Hoffpauir, Dennis Dove, Cory Doyne, & Mike Parisi)
2005 - finished 4th in their division with a 37-39 record.  Players with MLB time on roster - 3 (Tyler Greene, Mitchell Boggs, Blake Hawksworth).
2006 -  finished 4th in their division with a 39-36 record.  Players with MLB time on roster - 7 (David Carpenter, Allen Craig, Mark Hamilton, Brendan Ryan, Luke Gregerson, Jason Motte, Adam Ottavino & P. J. Walters)
2007 - finished 31-47 and in 5th place.  Players with MLB time - 9 (Andrew Brown, David Carpenter, Tony Cruz, Daniel Descalso, Steven Hill, Pete Kozma, Brian Broderick, Clayton Mortenson, & Jess Todd)
2008 - finished in first in their division with a 46-28 record.  Players with MLB time on roster - 1 (Lance Lynn)
2009 - finished 4th in their division with a 37-39 record.  Players with MLB time on roster - 1 (Matt Carpenter).
2010 - won their division with a 45-29 record. 
2011 - finished 4th in their division with a 37-38 record.

Since 2004, the Cardinals short season teams have produced 34 players who have seen time on MLB rosters.  Fourteen of those players are on the 40 man roster for the Cards.

During that same time frame, the Astros have produced 21 players who have donned a MLB uniform.  Nine of those players currently grace the Astros 40 man roster.

This gives some hope that he can build a farm system.  Since the Astros have just leveled their system a few years ago and have laid what appears to be a good foundation, I expect we will see results at a faster pace than his time with the Cardinals showed.  Time will tell.

Johnson City Cardinals Lose The Hill

On my drive to work today, I heard on "The Sports Monster" an interview with East Tennessee State head baseball coach Tony Skole (pronounced like the dip - what a great baseball name). He mentioned that the hill that stretched from the right field line almost to the corner of center (yes, there is a corner in center field) had been leveled.

The Johnson City Press followed that interview up with a story. They described the berm this way:

Perhaps 15 feet high and banked at 55- or 60-degree angles in places, the hill turned outfielders into mountain goats. And because it doubled as a football stadium perimeter and continued to arc in from the right field corner, the berm also made straightaway right-center field some 310 feet from the plate.

Shopping at the right-center field gap could provide cheap home runs for batters who often circled the bases almost apologetically after slicing balls through the breeze and over the hill while pitchers cursed the baseball gods.

Skole said there were seasons their home ERA was 2.50 points higher because of the short field in right. So much for a home field advantage. He added:

From a fan’s standpoint, you don’t see a 20-foot hill in the outfield,” East Tennessee State coach Tony Skole, who has managed some 300 games there. “It added a lot of charisma. But if you pitched there on a consistent basis you could end up pulling your hair out. I know a lot of the purists are probably disappointed … but from a coaching standpoint I really applaud the city for taking it down and making the adjustment.

There are other great recollections of the hill in the article. I encourage you to check it out.

Howard Johnson Field at Cardinal Park used to back up to Steve Spurrier Field where the Science Hill Hilltoppers played their football games. That created the short right field. Now, with Science Hill having it's new on campus stadium, the football stands were leveled and so was the hill.

Here are some links to pictures of "the hill" - pic 1 , pic 2.

Personally, I am glad my son got to attend a game in that park last season so he could see "the hill" . With "the hill" leveled, now the high walls in left and the deep corner in center are the only character left in what otherwise is just an old nondescript stadium.